[OPINION] Marcos faces delicate balancing act as he looks to Russia for oil

At about the same time in mid-June, two events took place at the global stage that showed contrasting ways countries dealt with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.

In France, as leaders of the G-7 convened and heaped stronger sanctions on Russia, including its oil and gas sectors, to “increase the pressure on the Russian war economy,” ASEAN heads of state met with Putin in Kazan and talked about opportunities to source energy from the heavily sanctioned country. Russia hosted the ASEAN leaders in a summit to commemorate the 35^th anniversary of its relations with the regional bloc.

Caught in this moment was ASEAN chair President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., leader of the oldest US ally in Southeast Asia, friend of the European Union and Ukraine. The Philippines was among those that voted to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and, in a historic visit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Marcos in Manila in 2024, the only other Southeast Asian country he made a trip to after attending the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. 

But Marcos did not show any discomfort and was effusive about relations with Russia as the US war on the Middle East has changed the security landscape. It has drawn the Philippines, which is dependent on energy imports, to Russia, becoming its lifeline for crude oil. In March, Russia came to the rescue of the Philippines as the Strait of Hormuz closed, shipping 2.1 million barrels of crude oil.

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Talking to the press after the ASEAN summit, Marcos said that while there are geopolitical considerations in getting oil on a regular basis from Russia, “We’re putting the systems in place for an assured lifeline of supplies [from Russia]. We have an understanding to continue to develop what we started during the oil crisis…which was on an ad hoc basis. Putin is open to increase our engagement but there is no firm deal yet.”

During the war, the US temporarily waived sanctions on Russian seaborne oil to help vulnerable countries. This ended on June 17, 2026. 

Asked about the repercussions of buying oil from Russia, primarily in helping fund the war on Ukraine, Marcos replied: “Certainly, Ukraine is a concern…. We don’t want to be part of a system that fuels conflict.” Still, he said, he will make a nuanced decision.

Multipolar world

In his four years in office, Marcos has positioned Philippine foreign policy away from the old bipolar world order and nowhere has this been more evident in security agreements, including with countries considered non-traditional partners. This has been driven by China’s aggression in the South China Sea and a strategic goal to reduce dependence on the US.

A confluence of events has occurred as Europe and other like-minded countries have drawn up their Indo-Pacific strategies, casting their gaze on our region. They consider China a threat to free and open sea lanes for trade. Our strategic location has made the Philippines important, a likely partner.

Thus, under Marcos’s watch, the Philippines forged Visiting Forces Agreements with Japan, New Zealand, Canada, and France, providing our military opportunities to train and conduct drills with its counterparts. This is the most number of VFAs the Philippines has concluded.  

France is the first European country to have a VFA with the Philippines. Negotiations are ongoing with the United Kingdom. These are the only two countries on the European continent which have nuclear weapons.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines and Singapore are in the early stages of talks for a VFA. If ever, Singapore will be the first country in the region to sign such an agreement with us.

(Earlier, during the administration of Fidel Ramos, the Philippines entered into a VFA with the US, followed by a similar agreement with Australia during the presidency of Benigno Aquino III.)

As Marcos said while in Kazan: “We have shed that idea of alignment in a bipolar world order…. There is recognition that the world has changed and we are responding to the new reality.” He added, “In the summit, we talked a lot about multipolarity.”

Japan and Vietnam

In East Asia, two recent upgrades in our diplomatic relations have further given the Philippines a boost in the security sphere.

Japan and the Philippines elevated their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, short of an alliance, during Marcos’s recent state visit to Japan. This also signaled the start of talks for an intelligence-sharing agreement.

Japan has undergone a strategic shift, shaking off its pacifist moorings. It has lifted  its old arms-export rules, the first time since World War II, and allows the export of lethal defense equipment such as missiles and destroyers. Tokyo and Manila are working on an early transfer of used destroyers and aircraft to the Philippine military. 

For their part, Vietnam and the Philippines elevated their relations to an enhanced strategic partnership when President To Lam recently came to Manila on a state visit. (In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is the first and only strategic partner of the Philippines.)

Marcos and To Lam agreed to “sustain high-level exchanges between their defense and security sectors, strengthen strategic and policy dialogue, and information sharing.” The two leaders also agreed to enhance maritime cooperation between their Coast Guards, their hotline communication system as well as cooperation in marine scientific research.

The changing security environment is pushing Europe, Japan, Vietnam, other like-minded countries, and the Philippines closer to each other — and Marcos is presiding over this new era, diversifying foreign policy. How he will deal with Russia will be a test to his diplomatic mettle. – Rappler.com