Why Elastic Stock Could Be Worth $118 as CRPO Accelerates to 20%

Key Takeaways for Elastic Stock as of June 2026

• Analysts rate Elastic stock 19 buys / 12 holds / 1 sell with a mean target of $74, implying around 32% upside from the current price of $56.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values Elastic at $118 by April 2031, implying around 109% total return, or roughly 17% annualized.
• Current remaining performance obligations grew 20% to $1.2 billion in Q4 FY26, up from 15% the prior quarter, while management guided FY27 operating margin to roughly 19%.

Elastic stock’s backlog is accelerating while its price sits 41% below the 52-week high. See how analysts and the TIKR model value ESTC on TIKR for free →

Elastic Stock’s Q4 Revenue Grew 16% but Its Backlog Tells a Bigger Story

Elastic (ESTC) closed fiscal 2026 with Q4 revenue of $451 million, a 16% year-over-year increase that slightly beat Wall Street’s $447 million consensus. The quarter capped a full year of $1.74 billion in revenue, up 17%, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 16.4%.

What stood out, though, was the acceleration beneath the revenue line. Current remaining performance obligations (CRPO), the committed backlog that converts to revenue over the next 12 months, grew 20% to $1.2 billion, a 500-basis-point acceleration from the prior quarter on a constant currency basis. Total RPO surged 28% to nearly $2 billion, marking the fastest growth rate in four years, while the portion beyond 12 months jumped 43%.

Behind those numbers, management sees a structural shift in enterprise buying behavior. CEO Ash Kulkarni addressed the acceleration directly on the Q4 FY26 earnings call: “Organizations are increasingly choosing Elastic for their long-term AI transformations and making larger multiyear commitments to standardize on our platform for the future.” That momentum showed up most clearly in security, where Elastic landed an 8-figure deal with a Fortune 50 financial services firm and continued expanding the CISA SIEM-as-a-Service program across U.S. civilian agencies.

Meanwhile, on the margin side, management guided FY27 non-GAAP operating margin to roughly 19%, a 250-basis-point expansion, and raised the FY29 target from above 20% to approximately 25%. Days after the earnings report, Elastic announced a 7% workforce reduction to realign investments toward AI priorities, expecting $22 million to $25 million in restructuring charges.

Still, the company plans to grow total headcount on a net basis in FY27, concentrating new hires in customer-facing sales roles to capture the pipeline its committed backlog signals.

With CRPO growing 20% and RPO up 28%, Elastic’s committed backlog signals a revenue re-acceleration. Explore ESTC’s full financial breakdown on TIKR for free →

19 Buy Ratings and a $74 Mean Target Back Elastic Stock

Wall Street maintains a solidly constructive stance on Elastic stock, with 19 buy-equivalent ratings against 12 holds and 1 sell across 27 covering analysts. The mean price target of $74 implies around 32% upside from the current price of $56, while the median sits at $72 and the high estimate reaches $120.

That consensus range reflects growing confidence in the revenue re-acceleration thesis that Q4’s backlog data supports.

Wall Street Expects Elastic Stock Revenue to Re-Accelerate Through Fiscal 2027

Elastic posted Q4 FY26 revenue of $451 million, growing 16% year over year. That marked a slight deceleration from Q3’s 17.7% growth rate, and the Q1 FY27 guide of $469 million to $470 million, or around 13% growth, sets a near-term trough that has weighed on sentiment.

The consensus trajectory, however, steps higher from there.

Analysts project Q2 FY27 revenue of around $480 million (roughly 14% growth), followed by approximately $520 million in each of Q3 and Q4, implying growth accelerating to around 15% and 16%, respectively. Full-year FY27 consensus lands near $1.99 billion, or roughly 15% growth.

What underpins that trajectory is CRPO coverage. Management disclosed that approximately 70% of FY27 sales-led subscription revenue already sits in committed backlog, meaning the acceleration depends less on new wins and more on recognizing deals already signed. The remaining 30% comes from ramping sales capacity, which Elastic expanded throughout FY26 and enters FY27 at one of its highest growth rates in recent history.

The key question is whether Elastic’s Q4 FY27 exit rate of around 16% growth provides a steep enough ramp toward management’s midterm target of 20%-plus sales-led subscription growth by FY29, or whether that bridge requires a CRPO inflection the Street has not yet modeled.

Elastic Stock Grows Faster Than Cisco but Trails CrowdStrike and Datadog

Elastic posted Q4 FY26 revenue growth of 16%, sitting between Datadog’s (DDOG) 32% and CrowdStrike’s (CRWD) 26% at the top and Cisco’s (CSCO) 12% at the bottom. On a forward basis, consensus expects Elastic to grow around 15% by Q4 FY27, while CrowdStrike drifts toward roughly 22%, Datadog slows to around 20%, and Cisco falls below 7%.

What stands out is the direction. Elastic is the only name in the group where analysts expect revenue growth to accelerate from its near-term trough, while all three peers show a decelerating trend over the same window. That re-acceleration profile, combined with a stock price 41% below its 52-week high, creates a different risk-reward setup than the premium growers currently offer.

TIKR’s $118 Target on Elastic Stock Holds If Committed Backlog Converts on Schedule

TIKR’s mid-case model values Elastic at around $118 by April 2031, implying around 109% total return from the current price of $56, or roughly 17% annualized over 4.8 years.

That return positions Elastic stock well above typical infrastructure software names, reflecting the model’s expectation that revenue compounds at around 11% annually through the forecast period while net income margins expand to roughly 19% at the midpoint.

The path to $118 becomes plausible when measured against the Q4 FY26 backlog data. CRPO acceleration to 20%, noncurrent RPO growing 43%, and 70% revenue coverage from existing commitments collectively provide the near-term foundation for the re-acceleration the model requires. If FY27 plays out as guided and the FY29 operating margin reaches approximately 25%, the earnings power implied by TIKR’s target aligns with a company compounding both growth and profitability simultaneously.

TIKR’s mid-case model puts Elastic stock at $118 with roughly 109% total return. See the full valuation model for ESTC on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in Elastic N.V.?

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