Why Galaxy Research Now Sees Just 50% Odds for the CLARITY Act

• Galaxy Research lowered CLARITY Act passage odds to 50% amid Senate scheduling delays.
• Unresolved ethics provisions and bill text continue delaying the Senate floor vote process.
• Early July action could improve prospects before the August congressional recess begins.

Galaxy Research has reduced its forecast for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%. The research firm cited mounting legislative delays, unresolved policy disagreements, and a shrinking Senate calendar as the primary reasons behind its revised outlook despite maintaining confidence in the bill’s overall direction.

Senate Calendar Pressure Raises Concerns

Galaxy Research believes the revised probability reflects scheduling challenges rather than declining support for the CLARITY Act. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan backing in May. However, lawmakers have yet to schedule a full Senate vote, slowing its legislative progress.

The measure remains on the Senate legislative calendar without a confirmed floor debate date. Consequently, uncertainty has increased as lawmakers continue prioritizing several competing legislative matters before the August congressional recess.

According to Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn, the Senate’s crowded agenda leaves limited opportunities for crypto legislation. Several high-priority issues, including the SAVE Act, the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act, and the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, continue consuming valuable floor time.

Moreover, negotiations surrounding a housing bill have further complicated the Senate’s timetable. Each legislative delay reduces the available window for advancing the CLARITY Act before lawmakers leave Washington for their scheduled recess.

Galaxy Research noted that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor consideration by early July. Otherwise, the legislation could slip into September, creating additional uncertainty ahead of the midterm election cycle.

Unresolved Issues Continue to Weigh on the Bill

Beyond scheduling concerns, several policy matters remain unresolved before the legislation can secure sufficient bipartisan backing. Galaxy Research emphasized that the downgrade reflects timing challenges instead of weakening confidence in the bill’s underlying framework.

Ethics provisions requested by Senate Democrats remain under negotiation after lawmakers postponed discussions during committee consideration. Developer protection language connected to broader blockchain legislation also requires further agreement before the Senate proceeds.

The bill is expected to require at least 60 Senate votes for advancement. Galaxy Research expects some Republican opposition, increasing the importance of securing Democratic support before scheduling floor debate.

Additionally, no unified legislative text has emerged between the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee. Without a consolidated version, lawmakers still face reconciliation work before the proposal advances further.

Galaxy Research stated that its outlook could improve if Senate leaders announce a July voting schedule, release a unified bill text, and resolve outstanding ethics concerns. Until those developments occur, the firm believes the CLARITY Act faces an evenly balanced path toward becoming law in 2026, with procedural timing remaining its greatest obstacle.

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