D-Wave Quantum’s Most Confusing Quarter: Bookings Up 1,994%, Revenue Down 81%

Key Takeaways for D-Wave Quantum Stock as of June 2026

• Analysts rate D-Wave Quantum stock 12 buys, 1 hold, 0 sells, with a mean target of $37, implying around 57% upside from the current price of $24.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values D-Wave Quantum at $40 by December 2030, implying around 67% total return, or roughly 12% annualized.
• D-Wave Quantum stock is undervalued at current levels, with revenue estimates pointing to 689% growth by December 2026 that the market has not fully priced into the current valuation.
• Q1 2026 bookings surged nearly 2,000% year over year to $33.4 million, pushing remaining performance obligations to $42.4 million, a 563% increase from a year earlier.

D-Wave Quantum stock just posted a 1,994% bookings spike while revenue fell 81%. See which number the model actually prices on TIKR for free →

D-Wave Quantum Stock Surges on Bookings Even as Q1 Revenue Craters 81%

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) builds quantum annealing computers used for optimization problems and is expanding into gate-model quantum computing through its January 2026 acquisition of Quantum Circuits. The company posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.9 million, down 81% year over year and below the $4.14 million analyst consensus.

The miss traces to a tough comparison. The prior-year quarter included a one-time $12.6 million system sale to Germany’s Jülich Supercomputing Centre.

The more important signal sat beneath the revenue miss. Bookings hit $33.4 million in the quarter, up nearly 2,000% from $1.6 million a year earlier.

That surge was driven by a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University. It also included a $10 million enterprise quantum-computing-as-a-service contract, the company’s first deal of that kind with a Fortune 100 customer.

Remaining performance obligations reached $42.4 million at quarter-end, a 563% increase from $6.4 million in the first quarter of 2025. CFO John Markovich addressed the lumpiness directly on the Q1 earnings call: “The 2026 second quarter is likely to be up modestly from the first quarter with a substantial portion of the year’s revenue recognized in the second half of the year.”

GAAP operating expenses rose 125% to $56.5 million. The increase was driven by $9.1 million in non-recurring Quantum Circuits acquisition costs, pushing the net loss to $18.4 million.

CEO Alan Baratz raised the company’s system-sale guidance on the call. The business now expects “2 or 3 system deals per year,” with at least two deliveries expected in 2026.

The bigger story for D-Wave Quantum stock is the pivot toward system sales as a new revenue category. With $588 million in cash and a $100 million CHIPS Act funding commitment from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the company is betting that converting backlog into delivered systems resets how the Street models its growth.

D-Wave Quantum stock’s backlog jumped 563% in a single quarter. Pull the full RPO and bookings history yourself on TIKR for free →

Wall Street Splits 12 Buys to 1 Hold on D-Wave Quantum Stock

Wall Street analysts overwhelmingly favor D-Wave Quantum stock, with 12 buy ratings, 1 hold rating, and no sell ratings as of the most recent count.

That mean target has held roughly steady since the fourth quarter of 2025 even as the stock price itself swung between $14 and $26 over the same stretch, suggesting analysts are anchoring to the bookings and backlog trajectory rather than the volatile quarterly revenue print.

Wall Street Expects D-Wave Quantum Stock’s Revenue to Grow 690% Through December 2026

Wall Street consensus puts D-Wave Quantum’s quarterly revenue at around $14 million by March 2027, building off a Q1 2026 print of $2.86 million that marked an 81% year-over-year decline. Estimates show the trajectory reversing sharply in the back half of 2026, with September 2026 revenue projected to grow around 270% year over year to $14 million and December 2026 revenue projected to grow around 690% year over year to $22 million.

That projected snapback lines up directly with the $42.4 million remaining performance obligations balance and management’s own guidance that a substantial portion of 2026 revenue lands in the second half.

Estimates extend the acceleration into fiscal 2027, with March 2027 revenue projected to grow around 417% year over year to $15 million and June 2027 revenue projected to grow around 312% year over year to $17 million. EBITDA losses are expected to widen alongside that growth, reaching around $38 million by March 2027 before narrowing slightly to around $33 million by June 2027.

The Street’s model effectively treats the Q1 miss as a timing artifact tied to percentage-of-completion accounting on system sales rather than a demand problem.

The open question now is whether D-Wave Quantum can deliver the two systems management guided to in 2026 without further installation or calibration delays, since each system sale requires site preparation and calibration that can stretch the revenue recognition timeline by a quarter or more before it shows up in reported results.

D-Wave Quantum Stock Trails IonQ and Rigetti on Revenue Growth Before a Projected Reversal

D-Wave Quantum stock’s revenue growth has lagged its quantum computing peers for most of the past year. QBTS revenue fell 81% year over year as of March 2026, the steepest drop of the three stocks. IonQ (IOQ) grew 755% over the same period, and Rigetti (RGTI) grew 199%.

That gap is expected to flip. Consensus projects QBTS revenue growth accelerating to 689.73% by December 2026. That would top IonQ’s projected 14.01% growth and trail only Rigetti’s projected 451.70% for the same period.

The market appears to be is pricing D-Wave Quantum’s system-sale backlog to deliver the sharpest growth reversal of the three quantum peers. The next few quarters will test that bet directly.

TIKR’s $40 Target on D-Wave Quantum Stock Holds, If System Deliveries Land on Schedule

TIKR’s mid-case model values D-Wave Quantum at around $40 by December 2030, implying around 67% total return from the current price of $24, or roughly 12% annualized over the next 4.5 years.

That annualized return profile places D-Wave Quantum stock as a multi-year compounding story rather than a near-term re-rating play, with the bulk of the projected appreciation backloaded toward the outer years of the forecast as system-sale revenue scales.

The target is reachable if the revenue acceleration embedded in the 689% December 2026 growth estimate materializes on schedule, since that would validate the backlog-to-revenue conversion the bookings and RPO data already point to.

TIKR’s mid-case model puts D-Wave Quantum stock’s 2030 target around $40, a 67% total return. Build your own forecast on TIKR for free →

Should You Invest in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?

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