Axon Rose 10% Today. Here’s How Much the Stock Could Rise in 2026

Key Stats for Axon Stock

• Today’s Performance: 10%
• 52-Week Range: $339 to $886
• Valuation Model Target Price: Around $660
• Implied Upside: About 29%

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What Happened?

Axon Enterprise stock rose about 10% today, trading near $511 per share as a fresh federal contract headline put the company’s TASER business back at the center of the market’s attention. Investors were already focused on Axon’s shift from stun guns into a broader public safety platform, including body cameras, cloud evidence software, drones, and AI tools, so the new ICE-related news gave traders another reason to revisit the stock.

The stock moved higher because reports said President Donald Trump bought between $1 million and $5 million of Axon stock in February, before ICE later issued a procurement notice seeking a potential $220 million TASER-related contract. No contract has been awarded yet, and the notice did not name Axon directly, but investors treated the headline as a possible federal revenue opportunity because Axon’s TASER devices are closely tied to the procurement category.

This week, Axon’s special customer call highlighted growing adoption of its AI and drone tools, with Chief Customer Officer Mike Wagers saying drone-as-first-responder programs can let drones handle 20% to 40% of calls without officers needing to respond. Redmond Police Chief Darrell Lowe said drone-as-first-responder adoption is likely durable, adding, “It’s here to stay,” while Overland Park Police Chief Doreen Jokerst said her department uses Draft One, Axon Standards, Prepared, and DFR, with drones responding 26% faster than officers.

The move also builds on Axon’s stronger Q1 update, when revenue rose 34% year over year to $807 million, Software & Services revenue grew 35% to $355 million, and AI products revenue increased more than 700%. That growth is stronger than key peer Motorola Solutions, which reported 7% Q1 sales growth and 18% Software and Services growth, giving investors a clearer reason to assign Axon a bigger growth premium in public safety technology.

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Is Axon Undervalued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth: Around 30%
• Operating Margins: Around 9%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 53x

Axon appears modestly undervalued based on this model, with the target price of around $660 implying about 29% upside over the next 2.5 years.

The revenue growth assumption is tied to real business drivers: TASER 10 upgrades, body camera demand, drone adoption, counter-drone products, and cloud evidence tools are expanding Axon’s role from hardware supplier to public safety operating system.

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The segment revenue chart shows why investors are treating Axon as more than a TASER hardware business, with growth increasingly supported by Software & Services, Connected Devices, and broader public safety platform adoption.

The margin assumption is more conservative because Axon is still investing heavily in AI, sales capacity, and new product development, but the margin case improves if more agencies adopt higher-margin software products such as Draft One, Evidence.com, real-time operations tools, and automated report writing.

At current levels, Axon Enterprise looks undervalued but not deeply discounted, with future returns likely depending on continued federal demand, stronger software attach rates, and proof that AI tools can raise revenue per agency without slowing customer adoption.

How Much Upside Does Axon Stock Have From Here?

Investors can estimate Axon Enterprise’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

1. Revenue Growth
2. Operating Margins
3. Exit P/E Multiple

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

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