In BTC, the amount of supply at a loss has hit 10.45 million! What do the latest signals show?

Bitcoin has reached a striking new threshold in the current market cycle. On-chain data now shows that the amount of BTC held at a loss has surpassed the amount held in profit. Analyst Ali Charts reports that nearly 10.45 million BTC are currently above their acquisition cost, while only 9.60 million BTC remain in profit, signaling a major shift in market sentiment.

On-chain signals: A rare threshold crossed

For the first time during this ongoing cycle, the supply of BTC held at a loss has exceeded the supply in profit. Historically, similar crossovers have typically emerged near the bottom zones of bear markets during previous market cycles. This development could be crucial in forecasting the next major move for Bitcoin.

The data reveals that the recent price decline has put significant pressure on investors who entered the market in the near term. Yet, comparable periods in earlier cycles coincided with phases in which long-term holders gradually increased their accumulation, laying the groundwork for potential rebounds over time.

Mini glossary: On-chain data refers to wallet, transaction, and cost-based metrics that can be directly tracked on the blockchain. “In profit” or “at a loss” measures whether the last moved or acquired price of coins is respectively below or above the current market price.

Ali Charts emphasizes that such signals have only appeared a handful of times in Bitcoin’s 15-year history. Previous crossovers were recorded in 2011, 2014, 2018, and March 2020. In every instance, the market eventually recovered—although the duration to rebound varied, sometimes stretching up to a year.

Glassnode’s calculation and the price structure

Analytics firm Glassnode calculates these figures by comparing the cost basis of circulating coins to Bitcoin’s current market price. Coins purchased below the market price count toward the supply in profit, while those acquired above are counted as supply at a loss.

These indicators are closely watched for insights into Bitcoin’s historic market cycles. During upwards momentum, the supply in profit expands while supply at a loss contracts. The opposite occurs during downtrends. Despite the recent correction, a substantial share of the total supply remains in profit, which many see as a noteworthy factor in the market’s ongoing direction.

Technical outlook: Key support region in focus

Crypto Patel argues that the long-term technical structure for Bitcoin remains intact. According to this analyst, since 2015, Bitcoin has moved within a broad parallel channel, with recent price activity over the past month fitting within this framework.

The chart identifies the $36,000–$44,000 range, defined by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, as the main accumulation zone. If this area is maintained, the long-term bullish structure could remain intact. However, a breakdown below this range might trigger a sharper correction toward lower Fibonacci levels, raising the risk of accelerated declines.

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