OpenAI And Anthropic Want SpaceX-Sized IPOs, But Wall Street May Choke

OpenAI and Anthropic are pushing toward stock listings that could add roughly $200 billion to Wall Street, chasing SpaceX's record initial public offering.

OpenAI, Anthropic Chase SpaceX

SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in U.S. history in June, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, edging out Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut by roughly $70 billion.

Demand reportedly topped $250 billion, more than three times the shares on offer.

Anthropic, the maker of Claude, has since confidentially filed for its own offering, targeting roughly $30 billion at a $965 billion valuation, following a $65 billion funding round that pushed annualized revenue near $47 billion.

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OpenAI is expected to follow at a valuation above $1 trillion, though it has weighed pushing its own listing into 2027 after SpaceX's volatile post-debut trading rattled bankers. Its shares briefly topped $225 before sliding back toward $150.

Wall Street Weighs The Risk

Financial strategist Ed Yardeni called the combined strain on available capital "manageable," noting the three offerings represent roughly 0.4 percent of investable equity markets against $8 trillion sitting in money-market funds. Commentator Mark Hulbert cited research showing every dollar pulled from equities can shrink total market value by five dollars, implying a trillion-dollar hit if all three companies list within a year, though he stopped short of forecasting a crash. Not everyone agrees the math holds up.

Separate research on past IPO waves has linked heavy new-issue volume to softer stock returns over the following year, a pattern some analysts see repeating now.

Both companies are structured to qualify for fast-track inclusion in major stock indexes once they list, a status SpaceX secured within roughly two weeks of its own debut under a rule change adopted this spring. That forces index funds to buy in fast, regardless of valuation.

Fund managers funding new allocations typically sell existing holdings rather than raise fresh cash, and AI infrastructure stocks already absorbed some of that pressure in June. The Nasdaq slid more than four percent in a single session that month, its worst day in over a year, as investors trimmed chip and cloud stocks ahead of SpaceX's pricing. Crypto markets felt the same pull, and Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled as spot funds posted billions in monthly outflows.

SpaceX shares have swung wildly since their mid-June debut, spiking above $225 before slipping back toward $150 as broader tech shares wobbled through the summer. That volatility is now the benchmark both rivals will study closely before setting their own terms.

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