XRP Reclaims $1.15 as Binance Reserves Drop to Multi-Year Lows

Key Highlights

• XRP gained approximately 8% over a seven-day period following a rebound from $1.03
• Spot ETF net inflows decreased by 55% during June, falling from $132M to $59M
• The XRP Binance Scarcity Index reached 0.77, marking its highest reading in over 24 months
• Binance’s XRP holdings have declined 20% since November 2024, currently sitting at approximately 2.6 billion tokens
• Critical resistance level identified at $1.20, with upside target at $1.50 and downside risk at $0.80

XRP has demonstrated a solid recovery over the past week, posting gains of nearly 8% after establishing support at the $1.03 level. The digital asset is currently changing hands above $1.15, successfully reclaiming a price point that served as a support threshold before the June downturn.

Market activity intensified significantly, with trading volume surging approximately 62% within a 24-hour window to reach $1.8 billion. Such dramatic volume increases typically indicate fresh market participation following periods of subdued trading activity.

This rebound follows a challenging June for XRP holders. The token experienced a significant decline from heights above $1.55 in February, ultimately bottoming out near the $1.00 to $1.04 range by late June—representing the most substantial holder drawdown in over a decade.

Institutional appetite, as measured through ETF flows, painted a cautious picture during this period. Net capital inflows to XRP-linked spot exchange-traded funds contracted from $132 million in May to just $59 million in June, representing a 55% month-over-month decline. Traditional finance interest appeared to wane despite the token’s price compression.

Large Holders Accumulate as Exchange Inventory Tightens

Blockchain metrics revealed a contrasting narrative within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger surged to levels not witnessed since February, as reported by Santiment. During that February timeframe, XRP traded within a $1.47 to $1.54 range.

Concurrently, the XRP Binance Scarcity Index climbed to 0.77 this week, representing its most elevated reading in more than two years, based on analysis from CryptoQuant researcher ArabxChain. This indicator quantifies XRP’s availability on Binance compared to historical benchmarks.

Binance’s XRP inventory has contracted by approximately 20% since November 2024, declining from roughly 3.27 billion tokens to around 2.6 billion currently. Holdings specifically dropped from about 2.8 billion in May to 2.6 billion by early July, coinciding precisely with the scarcity index’s breakout to new highs.

Market observers at ChartNerd highlighted this technical formation on X, describing XRP’s “3rd Retest” as a favorable entry point for position builders, characterizing it as “a gift” for chart-focused market participants.

Short Position Liquidations Contributed to Initial Rally

Futures market data from Coinglass reveals funding rates plunged into deeply negative territory between June 26 and 28, coinciding precisely with the price bottom. This concentration of short positions created conditions favorable for a squeeze.

The subsequent rally to $1.13 appears consistent with forced short covering rather than organic new demand. Funding rates have since normalized to slightly positive, suggesting a healthier positioning landscape.

Immediate resistance is located at $1.20, which previously contained the mid-June recovery attempt. A confirmed daily close above this threshold would expose the $1.35–$1.40 region, representing approximately 22% upside from current pricing.

The daily Relative Strength Index currently reads near 55, indicating additional headroom exists before overbought territory becomes a concern.

The 200-day Exponential Moving Average is positioned at $1.50, which technical analysts identify as the primary bullish objective if buying momentum persists. Conversely, a breakdown below $1.00 would negate the current recovery thesis.

XRP volume recently exceeded Bitcoin on South Korean platform Upbit, providing an interesting data point as market participants evaluate whether genuine demand is materializing.

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