Oil Prices Surge as Trump Declares Iran Deal “Over”

TLDR

• Trump declared the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum “over” at a NATO summit in Turkey, sending oil prices sharply higher.
• Brent crude rose 5.5% to $78.24 a barrel; U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained around 3%.
• Iran’s IRGC said it struck 85 U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain and downed an American drone.
• Global stocks fell, with European shares dropping 1.6% and U.S. futures down 0.8–1.2%.
• The U.S. also revoked a sanctions waiver allowing Iran to sell oil internationally, tightening supply expectations.

Oil prices jumped more than 5% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran to end the Gulf conflict was “over.”

The comments rattled markets that were already on edge following an exchange of military strikes between U.S. and Iranian forces.

Brent crude futures rose 5.5% to $78.24 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained around 3% to $72.49 a barrel. That marks the biggest single-day jump in Brent since late May.

Military Strikes Escalate in the Gulf

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it had struck 85 U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, and also shot down an American MQ-9 drone.

The Pentagon said its own strikes were a response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said it hit more than 80 targets in Iran and around 60 Iranian small boats in or near the strait.

Tehran has not claimed responsibility for Tuesday’s attacks on ships off the coast of Oman, which included a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari vessel carrying liquefied natural gas.

Negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are now reportedly paused for funeral ceremonies for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed during a U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran in late February.

The Strait of Hormuz carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG. Analysts at OCBC said a full return to conflict appears unlikely given U.S. political pressure ahead of the November midterms, but noted there is still “no clear path to fully securing the Strait of Hormuz.”

The U.S. also revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil internationally, a move that could tighten global crude markets in the coming weeks.

Stocks Fall, Bond Yields Rise

The oil surge hit global financial markets hard. European shares dropped 1.6%, on course for the biggest one-day fall in the STOXX 600 since mid-March. U.S. equity futures fell between 0.8% and 1.2%.

The VIX volatility index jumped nearly 13%, its largest single-day rise in over a month.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to a one-month high of 4.56%. German and Italian bond yields also hit one-month highs.

Data released this week showed U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks hit their lowest level since 1983, leaving markets more exposed to supply disruptions.

Semiconductor and AI stocks were already under pressure before Trump’s comments, as investors questioned lofty valuations. Samsung fell for a second straight session despite reporting a 19-fold jump in profit. Concerns are growing that memory chip demand could slow in the second half of the year.

The dollar rose on the day, pushing the euro just above $1.14. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes are due later Wednesday.

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