Najib pardon narrative a grave BN misstep, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s prospects in the Johor polls may have been dented by the narrative that a big win would signal public support for incarcerated former prime minister Najib Razak’s pardon and release, say analysts.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali described the claim made by Najib’s son, Nazifuddin, as a grave misstep in election strategy as it could galvanise a significant chunk of the Johor electorate against BN.

Fauzi said Nazifuddin may have made the remark thinking it would boost BN’s support, but added that such a narrative would likely only to resonate with Malay voters already inclined to back the Umno-led coalition.

“What was supposed to be a stroll in the park for BN has now been transformed into a difficult climb up a mountain through hazardous terrain.

“Nazifuddin has personalised BN’s whole election campaign at a time when some voters have been expressing fatigue over the unchanging political conditions.

“Such personalisation will now drive these voters to vote against BN as a mark of protest and manifestation of a sense of being fed up with Umno’s neo-feudalistic culture,” Fauzi told FMT.

Mazlan said large segments of non-Malay voters — particularly from the Chinese community — along with middle-class Malays and outstation voters, are now likely to turn out and vote against BN, having been initially expected to stay away from the polls.

While multiple BN leaders have tried to downplay Nazifuddin’s remarks, Mazlan said the coalition’s rivals have already been given the ammunition to paint Umno as supporting corruption, given that Najib has been convicted and sentenced to jail.

“For the Chinese as well as middle-class Malays and Indians, they cannot accept the reality that someone who has been convicted and sentenced to prison for corruption is being championed by certain quarters to be freed.

“It could spark a wave of rejection of BN among these segments of voters, because they cannot compromise with corruption. So I think this issue will result in a rise in support for PH,” he said.

Fauzi agreed, but believed it would galvanise certain segments of Malay voters to vote for Perikatan Nasional instead, simultaneously rejecting a push for Najib’s pardon or voting for the more liberal PH.

Last Friday, Nazifuddin claimed that a major Barisan Nasional victory in Johor would signal that the people continue to support Najib and hoped to see him receive a royal pardon.

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, his deputy Mohamad Hasan, and Umno information chief Azalina Othman Said denied the matter, saying the state polls had nothing to do with a pardon for Najib as it was the king’s prerogative.

Meanwhile, PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim claimed that the coalition had been dragged into the Johor polls by “certain parties” who wanted a return to power to free Najib, a veiled reference to Umno and BN.

Anwar said there was no reason for the state election to be called early but “these parties” felt that they could build momentum to regain past dominance, even at the federal level.

Najib, 72, is serving a six-year prison sentence in the SRC International case. His jail sentence is scheduled to end on Aug 23, 2028.

He has also been convicted by the High Court of abuse of power and money laundering linked to 1MDB, for which he has been sentenced to 15 years’ imprisonment, commencing after the expiry of his current sentence. The former Pekan MP has appealed that decision.

Fauzi said PH will be hoping to maximise its non-Malay support in Johor to deny BN a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The coalition will also be banking on outstation voters to return and vote, as they did in the 2022 general election when PH managed to win 13 parliamentary seats compared to BN’s nine, despite losing the state election just six months prior.

Nonetheless, a PH victory in this Johor state election is unlikely, he added.