Gold prices keep rising, and jewelry companies are sounding the alarm

Amid global economic turbulence, the prices of precious metals have been climbing higher and higher.

The price of gold in particular has skyrocketed over the past year, rising more than 50%. For midsize jewelry companies aiming to offer fine gold necklaces, earrings and more at lower price points than legacy luxury jewelry brands, gold futures could be spelling trouble.

Though gold is often subject to market fluctuations, investors have been increasing their holdings over the past year over recession fears and market uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs. Gold is on pace for its third straight year of double-digit gains, even hitting record highs this week during the government shutdown.

On Tuesday, gold prices hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history — and they’re showing no signs of slowing down.

Analysts from UBS wrote last week that lower interest rates, weakness in the dollar and political uncertainty will only continue to drive the price of gold higher.

“We now expect inflows for this year to be 830 metric tons, which is almost double our initial forecast of 450 metric tons at the start of the year,” the UBS analysts wrote in a note. “The key risk for gold is better U.S. growth and if the Fed is forced to raise rates due to inflation-related upside surprises.”

A Goldman Sachs report from late last month predicted the climb, forecasting that the price of gold will rise 6% through the middle of 2026 to $4,000 per troy ounce, a unit of measurement used for precious metals. The report categorized buyers of gold into two groups: conviction buyers, who purchase the metal consistently, and opportunistic buyers, who jump in “when they believe the price is right.”

The analysts said they expect central banks to continue buying gold for three more years.

“Our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight gold compared to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing allocations as part of a broader diversification strategy,” analyst Lina Thomas wrote.

And according to July survey data from the World Gold Council, roughly 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to rise in the next year.

That uncertainty comes on top of an already turbulent global economy reeling from changing tariff policies from President Donald Trump. Though he made clear in August that gold will not be tariffed and that bars from Switzerland will not be subject to the country’s 39% tariff, Trump’s steep rates on other countries have been disrupting the global supply chain.

For jewelers, the rising price of the precious metal may be a cause for concern. Large retailers like Pandora and Signet have signaled that they are exploring price hikes or alternative manufacturing methods to counteract the hit they’re taking from gold.

And some jewelry companies that aim to offer gold products at lower price points, like Mejuri, are feeling the pressure too.

Mejuri, which aims to sell gold and luxury jewelry at more affordable levels than its competitors, announced last month that the company was being forced to raise its prices due to the rising cost of gold, silver and tariffs.

“While we’ve been doing everything we can to absorb the impact and preserve the quality and craftsmanship you expect from us, you’ll see some prices update on Monday, September 29th,” Mejuri wrote in an email to customers. “We’re tackling these shifts head-on: streamlining our supply chain, strengthening sourcing and designing with pricing in mind.”

The company said it’s also innovating new products like 10 karat solid gold to keep offering quality jewelry at affordable prices. Mejuri declined to comment.

With the price of gold rising and showing no signs of stopping, some jewelry companies are being forced to be innovative with their pricing and products.

In its second-quarter earnings report in August, Pandora said it faced an 80-basis point hit due to higher prices of gold and silver and that it planned some price adjustments to offset those headwinds. And on Signet’s most recent earnings call in early September, the company said sales declined 7% year over year primarily due to a more than 30% increase in the cost of gold.

BaubleBar, which specializes in fine jewelry, offers a large selection of “demi-fine” gold pieces, which co-founder Daniella Yacobovsky said has allowed the company to somewhat avoid the brunt of the pressure from gold prices.

The company’s demi-fine jewelry features a thick, high-quality 18k gold plated over a sterling silver base, which allows BaubleBar to avoid the costs associated with solid gold jewelry. The brand’s demi-fine earrings range from anywhere between $50 to $150.

“We’ve actually seen a really huge increase in interest in demi-fine,” Yacobovsky told CNBC. “I think that it offers people a really fantastic alternative to solid gold. … You’re going to get a really fantastic quality similar to that for a lower price point.”

Still, Yacobovsky said it’s concerning that significant events affecting the global economy are happening at higher rates than even five years ago. She said she hasn’t seem something as volatile as the skyrocketing price of gold in the industry “for a long time.”

The key, she said, will be for businesses to capitalize on their ability to make smart choices.

For Alexis Bittar, CEO of his eponymous jewelry company, the smart choice meant leaning into gold-plated pieces, which allows the company to save costs over solid gold, and raising prices slightly to match the products that are coming in.

But the company is not repricing any of its existing products, Bittar said.

“You’re constantly juggling between the tariff and the acceleration of the gold prices, so you’re staying within a price point that you’re known for,” Bittar said. “From the consumer side, they’re not really caring. They vaguely know the prices of gold are going up … but mentally, they have an unconscious price point that they’re looking to spend, and when you start to way exceed it, you’re pricing people out.”

Bittar said his company is seeing a “cautious” consumer, but that any pullback in spending is likely more related to solid gold than plated gold, and that the wealthy consumer base is more willing to pay higher prices than lower- or middle-income shoppers.

Even for ear piercing company Rowan, which also offers gold jewelry, the rapidly changing industry may be spelling trouble. CEO Louisa Schneider told CNBC that it’s hard to imagine any other industry whose raw material costs have risen as dramatically as gold.

Because ear piercing requires some level of surgical steel or titanium for ideal healing, Rowan often uses 14k gold to coat those materials, leaving the company “somewhat insulated” from the rising price of gold because it is required to uphold certain health and safety standards.

Still, Schneider said Rowan had to raise prices on some of its gold pieces in the beginning of the third quarter, which she said customers are willing to pay for because the company specializes in employing trained nurses for the piercings.

“This is a fear indicator. So that, from my standpoint, is quite concerning,” Schneider said. “Our expectation is that we do not see a significant reduction in the current pricing – if anything, we expect that gold will continue to be quite expensive. So we will continue to hedge ourselves and to work really closely with our vendors.”

Schneider said she’s seeing an “inflection point” in the price of gold and that it’s a cause for concern for all jewelry companies, but especially those that are unable to raise their prices to counteract the costs because they sell to non-luxury consumers who are less flexible with price changes.

Ultimately, she said this serves as a warning sign for the broader economy, even if it might not be hitting Rowan too hard.

“The demand is not coming from consumers that want to wear gold or industries that require gold as a component of manufacturing,” Schneider said. “This is coming from a hoarding of gold given an uncertainty around the U.S. dollar, and that’s unlike anything that we’ve seen.”