WTO reverses April decline projections as 2025 goods trade forecast grows to 2.4%

The WTO has lifted its 2025 goods trade forecast to levels not seen since before the pandemic as artificial intelligence and tariff-driven imports rewire global flows.

On Tuesday in Geneva, the trade body said it now expects merchandise trade to grow 2.4% in 2025, a huge jump from the 0.9% projection made in August and a reversal of the 0.2% decline forecast in April. This rise follows a first half of the year marked by heavier AI‑related purchases, U.S. importers racing to beat tariff hikes, and stronger trade between developing countries.

The organization also cut its longer‑term outlook. Its economists now see 2026 goods trade growth at just 0.5%, down from 1.8%. Services exports are projected to rise 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, far below the 6.8% surge in 2024. The shift underscores how much of the current boost is tied to near‑term activity, not steady growth.

WTO cites AI goods and tariffs for surge

According to the WTO, “robust trade in artificial intelligence‑related goods” is at the heart of the jump in 2025 merchandise flows. The body listed semiconductors, servers and telecommunications gear as the main drivers of this growth.

Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala said the upswing also reflects stronger trade links between emerging economies and the way governments handled tariff changes earlier this year.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” she said.

Her comments are about the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs with significant variation by product, prompting U.S. companies to bring in shipments early to dodge higher costs.

The scale of AI‑linked commerce is also visible in debt markets. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the amount of debt tied to artificial intelligence reached $1.2 trillion, making it the largest slice of the investment‑grade universe. The bank’s analysts wrote that AI companies now account for 14% of the high‑grade market, up from 11.5% in 2020, and have overtaken U.S. banks’ 11.7% share of the JPMorgan US Liquid Index (JULI).

Debt and equity markets chase AI exposure

JPMorgan analysts Nathaniel Rosenbaum and Erica Spear identified 75 companies in technology, utilities and capital goods that are most linked to AI.

The list includes Oracle Corp., Apple Inc. and Duke Energy Corp. Many of these firms issue large amounts of debt but maintain low net leverage and high cash reserves. The group trades at 74 basis points, about 10 tighter than the broader JULI index.

“Debt tied to AI companies is growing fast but it trades tight for good reasons,” the analysts wrote, pointing to their strong balance sheets and heavy regulation.

These same firms have seen their equity valuations soar since ChatGPT launched the modern AI era three years ago, attracting investors who want exposure to technology that could reshape the global economy. Analysts warned, however, that any earnings setback at the largest tech players could spark a broader selloff because of their high valuations.

Debt investors are not standing still. Oracle’s $18 billion bond sale last month, the second‑largest high‑grade deal of the year, drew $88 billion in orders. Banks and private credit firms are also competing to underwrite financings that build out the huge data centers behind AI.

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