As the future of Bitcoin treasuries hangs in the balance ahead of the MSCI index exclusion review, one key player has been worryingly quiet – Metaplanet.
The fourth-largest BTC treasury firm based in Japan has not made any purchases since the market rout began in October.
Source: CryptoQuant
The last bid of 2744 BTC was made on 29 September, with the firm increasing its overall holdings to 30,823 BTC. At the time, BTC was trading at $112k. It went ahead and hit a new all-time high above $126k soon. However, the Q4 rout dragged it over 30% lower to $89k at press time.
This presented another discount for long-term players like Strategy and Metaplanet. However, Metaplanet didn’t jump to buy the dip.
Strange, right? You’d expect the top, visionary BTC treasury firms to jump on the discount window to add more exposure.
But Metaplanet’s recent restraint looks a little nuanced.
Metaplanet’s mNAV crisis
First, the mNAV (market to net asset value), a multiple that tracks enterprise value to BTC holdings, collapsed below 1x – Limiting any capital raising capacity for new purchases.
Source: Metaplanet
In fact, in late October, the firm announced a $500 million credit line for a stock buyback program to boost the mNAV.
The plan would extend to October 2026. Notably, on 5 December, it secured $50 million as part of the credit line for stock buyback and BTC purchases.
At press time, the mNAV was at 1.01x – Down from a record low of 0.93x.
However, the MSCI index exclusion review that’s affecting Strategy extends to Metaplanet too. The latter was included in MSCI Japan in February, and an exclusion could lead to a sell-off.
Metaplanet’s BTC loss and 2026 plans
Unlike Strategy, Metaplanet’s BTC holdings were sitting on unrealized losses of over half a billion at press time.
Source: CryptoQuant (Metaplanet’s unrealized PnL )
However, with only $304 million in outstanding debt, it had 9x BTC assets to cover the obligations at the press time BTC price.
That said, it remains to be seen whether it will also drop the “never sell BTC” narrative. Especially after Strategy confirmed a potential BTC dump if MSTR’s mNAV dips below 1x.
Metaplanet began its BTC plan in April 2024 with only 97 coins at that time. In less than two years, it acquired over 30k BTC – Now worth $2.75 billion. This was its 2025 target.
In 2026, the firm had plans to scale its holdings to 100k BTC and double that to 210k BTC by 2027. However, it’s unclear whether it will stick to the commitment or not.
Meanwhile, the stock (MTPLF) was up 28% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis while BTC was down 11% at the time of writing. In H2 2025 alone, MTPLF fell by 79% from $13 to $2.43. BTC shed 16% of its value over the same period, while trading at $89k on the charts.
Final Thoughts
- Metaplanet has been quiet over the past two months, but could soon announce a new BTC purchase after a recent $50 million credit line.
- It has already hit its 2025 target of 30k BTC holdings, with the firm now eyeing 100K BTC by 2026.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/no-dip-buying-metaplanet-stops-btc-buys-despite-30-price-drop-because/
