MSTR Stock Explodes Amid Fed Rate Cut Signals, Bitcoin Recovery

Key Insights

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock closed at $188.99 on December 9, 2025. This was a 2.9% gain after peaking intraday at $197.98.
• The rally followed the company’s disclosure of a near-$1 billion Bitcoin acquisition and the broader cryptocurrency market’s recovery.
• Technical analysis suggested the stock remained in a consolidation phase.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock closed at $188.99 on December 9, climbing 2.9% after reaching an intraday peak of $197.98, fueled by the company’s disclosure of a $962.7 million Bitcoin (BTC) purchase and a broader cryptocurrency market rally.

Strategy disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it purchased 10,624 BTC between December 1 and December 7 for approximately $962.7 million at an average price of $90,615 per coin.

The acquisition lifted the company’s total holdings to 660,624 BTC, reinforcing its position as the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.

The purchase announcement served as a confidence signal that typically correlated with upward MSTR stock price movements during Bitcoin rallies.

The timing coincided with Bitcoin’s recovery toward $95,000, supported by institutional adoption developments and favorable macro conditions heading into the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.

PNC Bank, the eighth-largest US commercial bank, launched direct spot Bitcoin trading for eligible clients inside its platform on December 9, powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure.

The institutional adoption milestone provided a sentiment boost across cryptocurrency markets, extending to MicroStrategy shares.

Markets anticipated a Federal Reserve rate cut at the week’s policy meeting, easing anxiety over financial conditions across risk assets and supporting the broader rally.

On-chain mechanics added momentum as Bitcoin pushed through the $89,000 to $92,000 range, flushing leveraged short positions that triggered hundreds of millions in reported liquidations, fueling a rapid move toward $94,000.

Technical Analysis Showed Consolidation Following May Peak

Trader Stock Pattern Pros noted on December 9 that MicroStrategy appeared positioned for a “long overdue squeeze,” with technical indicators suggesting potential for continued upward movement.

The observation came as the stock broke above its recent trading ranges, with increased volume accompanying the Bitcoin acquisition disclosure.

However, a recent warning from Trader XO noted that the stock’s run had topped around $455.

His chart displayed resistance in the $425 to $455 zone, where MSTR stock reached a local peak, with price action consolidating below those levels through mid-2025.

XO revisited his assessment on December 1, updating the chart caption to “it is what it is” and noting the price never again touched the $455 area following the May peak.

The updated analysis showed that MSTR stock had declined to $157.53 after breaking below the $325 support zone, representing a decline exceeding 60% from the May high and contributing to a year-to-date loss of 35% to 40%.

The December 9 rally represented a modest recovery from those lows, with the stock still trading approximately 58% below the May peak despite the day’s gains.

The technical setup suggested MicroStrategy remained in a consolidation phase as the stock worked to establish a base following the sharp correction.

Multiple-to-Net-Asset-Value Compression Created Long-Term Value Case

Trader defivillain explained the structural rationale behind MicroStrategy’s investment, emphasizing the company’s optimization for a single goal of increasing Bitcoin-per-share through its capital allocation strategy.

The structure mechanically positioned MSTR stock to outperform Bitcoin over longer timeframes when the strategy was executed as intended, a performance characteristic that distinguished it from most alternative cryptocurrencies.

The analysis acknowledged that Bitcoin could outperform MicroStrategy over shorter horizons, particularly when MicroStrategy traded at elevated multiples relative to Bitcoin’s net asset value.

When MSTR stock traded at three times Bitcoin’s net asset value, as in November 2024, the potential downside versus Bitcoin carried substantial risk.

The 2025 correction represented a year of multiple-to-net-asset-value compression from those elevated levels.

However, the analysis suggested investors should become increasingly constructive on MicroStrategy as the multiple approached one times net asset value, rather than turning bearish, because the downside in Bitcoin terms was significantly muted at one times compared to two or three times multiples.

The framework positioned current valuation levels as potentially attractive entry points for investors maintaining long-term bullish views on Bitcoin, as the compressed multiple reduced relative downside risk while preserving the structural advantage of Bitcoin-per-share accretion.