Itaú recommends 1%–3% Bitcoin exposure for investors

Itaú Unibanco, Brazil’s largest private bank, has reaffirmed its recommendation that investors consider allocating between 1% and 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin starting in 2026.

This has been defined in a research study that puts Bitcoin as a diversification tool and a currency hedge, but not a core investment. According to the report signed by Itaú strategist Renato Eid, Bitcoin operates differently compared to common classes of assets, such as equities, fixed income, and domestic markets.

The document observes that the decentralized and global character of Bitcoin may cause it to respond differently to various drivers as compared to local financial instruments. Itaú argues that this structural variance enables the bank to become one of the complementary assets, even in the face of heightened volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Allocation rationale and currency dynamics

According to Itaú’s analysis, the proposed 1% to 3% allocation range aims to strike a balance between exposure and risk. According to the bank, volatile assets are usually unpredictable in the short term, and a long-term investment date is more appropriate.

The report also examines Bitcoin’s performance in 2025, focusing on the role of foreign exchange movements in shaping outcomes for Brazilian investors. Bitcoin started the year near $93,500 and later traded between lows around $80,000 and highs above $125,000. While price volatility was large, Itaú notes that currency appreciation amplified local losses. 

Even though the price volatility was high, Itaú observes that the appreciation of the currency enhanced local losses. According to TradingView data used in the report, the U.S. dollar fell on average by 3.5% throughout the year, and the value of Bitcoin dropped by 16.2% against the Brazilian real.

Eid observes that the movements of the exchange rates directly affect the local performance of Bitcoin. The report mentions December 2024, when the dollar was expected to have reached close to R$6.30, strengthening Bitcoin positions in Brazil and its use as a form of currency protection during times of stress.

Bitcoin market access and recent price action

Itaú also offers exposure to Bitcoin through its Íon investment platform and the BITI11 exchange-traded fund, both of which are listed on B3. The two solutions also allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations without being entangled in custody and operational processes. The report also states that B3 is on the verge of entering into a new era of large-scale tokenization beginning in 2026, which potentially would extend digital assets into the Brazilian capital markets.

According to recent market reports, Bitcoin has experienced another period of short-term volatility. The price has fallen by 2.5% over the past 24 hours, currently trading at $90,300. 

The Itaú report concludes that in this kind of environment, characterized by low supply, currency sensitivity, and volatile prices, a small position assignment of 1-3% renders Bitcoin a suitable diversification tool, rather than a core asset.

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