Itaú Says Bitcoin Deserves a Small Portfolio Role

• Itaú recommends a 1%–3% Bitcoin allocation from 2026 to support diversification and currency risk management.
• Currency movements, not just price swings, drove weaker Bitcoin returns for Brazilian investors in 2025.
• Recent price volatility pushed Bitcoin near $90,000 as trading volume rose during a sharp sell-off.

Itaú, Brazil’s largest private bank, has reaffirmed its view that Bitcoin should play a limited but defined role in diversified investment portfolios starting in 2026. In a recent research report, the bank recommended allocating between 1% and 3% of portfolio exposure to Bitcoin, citing its distinct behavior relative to traditional assets and its relevance during periods of currency volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

The analysis, authored by Itaú strategist Renato Eid, argues that Bitcoin has matured into a functional portfolio component rather than a speculative outlier. According to the report, the cryptocurrency’s decentralized and global structure sets it apart from equities, fixed-income instruments, and domestic markets, allowing it to behave differently under adverse macroeconomic conditions.

Currency Dynamics Shape Local Performance

While Bitcoin recorded volatile price action in 2025, the report highlights that losses for Brazilian investors were amplified by currency movements rather than price declines alone. Bitcoin began the year near $93,500, later sliding between lows around $80,000 and highs above $125,000.

TradingView data cited in the report shows the dollar declining approximately 3.5% during the year, while Bitcoin’s value in reais fell by 16.2%. Eid noted that exchange-rate shifts directly influence Bitcoin’s performance in Brazil, recalling that in December 2024, when the dollar approached R$6.30, Bitcoin positions regained strength in local terms.

Market Volatility Returns as Prices Test Support

Bitcoin experienced renewed short-term pressure over the past 24 hours, falling roughly 2.5% to around $90,300. Chart data shows prices moving sideways near $92,400 for most of the session before a late sell-off pushed Bitcoin briefly below $90,000. Trading activity increased during the decline, with a 24-hour volume of $83 billion.

Access and Portfolio Construction

Itaú noted that Brazilian investors can access Bitcoin exposure through its Íon investment platform or via the BITI11 exchange-traded fund, which is listed on B3. The report also highlighted B3’s preparations for expanded tokenization initiatives beginning in 2026, which could further integrate digital assets into local market infrastructure.

The bank’s guidance calls for disciplined position-building and periodic rebalancing, stating that short-term forecasts for volatile assets tend to be unreliable. 

Related: 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Will Explode In December Through 2026