TLDR Japan’s expected rate hike could trigger rapid crypto and stock liquidations worldwide. Past BOJ hikes caused Bitcoin drops of 25–26% within weeks, showingTLDR Japan’s expected rate hike could trigger rapid crypto and stock liquidations worldwide. Past BOJ hikes caused Bitcoin drops of 25–26% within weeks, showing

Is a December Liquidity Shock the Last Obstacle Before a 2026 Crypto Rally?

2025/12/16 16:28

TLDR

  • Japan’s expected rate hike could trigger rapid crypto and stock liquidations worldwide.
  • Past BOJ hikes caused Bitcoin drops of 25–26% within weeks, showing market sensitivity.
  • Short-term selling removes weak positions, helping markets form a base for recovery.
  • Global easing and Japan’s stimulus may support a strong 2026 crypto market rebound.

Bitcoin and the crypto market may face a short-term liquidity shock in December ahead of a potential 2026 rally. 

Market participants are closely watching the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) upcoming meeting on December 18-19, where interest rates are expected to rise. Japan’s long-standing low rates have supported the yen carry trade, which encouraged investors to borrow cheaply and invest in assets like crypto and stocks.

Rising borrowing costs could force investors to repay yen-denominated loans, prompting asset sales. 

Historical examples highlight this risk: after a rate hike in July 2024, Bitcoin fell roughly 26%, and a January 2025 hike caused about a 25% decline. These patterns suggest December may bring sharp corrections, high volatility, and rapid liquidations.

Yen Carry Trade and Market Volatility

The yen carry trade has long influenced global financial flows. Investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. 

When borrowing becomes more expensive, forced selling often occurs, impacting both crypto and traditional markets.

A tweet from @BullTheoryio explains,

This forced selling creates sudden price swings, especially in highly leveraged crypto markets.

Past rate hikes show how quickly markets can respond. BTC dropped around 26% in July 2024 and about 25% in early 2025 following BOJ rate increases. 

These examples indicate that the December event could cause immediate volatility rather than gradual declines.

Traders can view these dynamics as a market reset. Short-term liquidations remove weaker positions, reducing selling pressure. 

Once panic selling subsides, a base can form, preparing markets for potential recovery and upward momentum.

Short-Term Shock and Longer-Term Opportunities

Japan’s current economic situation limits prolonged tightening. The country reported a GDP contraction of -0.6%, below the expected -0.4%, signaling weakness. 

To support markets, the Japanese government announced a ¥17 trillion stimulus program, including bond purchases to stabilize liquidity.

This intervention helps offset initial selling pressure. After liquidations, weaker positions are removed, and market conditions begin to stabilize. Reduced selling allows a base to form, creating opportunities for renewed price growth.

Global policy easing further supports potential recovery. The US, China, and Canada are already implementing measures to increase liquidity, which could bolster markets internationally. 

The combination of Japan’s stimulus and worldwide easing may set favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies in 2026.

While December may bring temporary turbulence, the liquidity shock could be the final hurdle before markets recover. 

Monitoring BOJ decisions and global liquidity trends will be critical for anticipating price movements and positioning for a potential rally.

The post Is a December Liquidity Shock the Last Obstacle Before a 2026 Crypto Rally? appeared first on Blockonomi.

Market Opportunity
FORM Logo
FORM Price(FORM)
$0,3848
$0,3848$0,3848
+24,20%
USD
FORM (FORM) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The post The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Visions of future technology are often prescient about the broad strokes while flubbing the details. The tablets in “2001: A Space Odyssey” do indeed look like iPads, but you never see the astronauts paying for subscriptions or wasting hours on Candy Crush.  Channel factories are one vision that arose early in the history of the Lightning Network to address some challenges that Lightning has faced from the beginning. Despite having grown to become Bitcoin’s most successful layer-2 scaling solution, with instant and low-fee payments, Lightning’s scale is limited by its reliance on payment channels. Although Lightning shifts most transactions off-chain, each payment channel still requires an on-chain transaction to open and (usually) another to close. As adoption grows, pressure on the blockchain grows with it. The need for a more scalable approach to managing channels is clear. Channel factories were supposed to meet this need, but where are they? In 2025, subnetworks are emerging that revive the impetus of channel factories with some new details that vastly increase their potential. They are natively interoperable with Lightning and achieve greater scale by allowing a group of participants to open a shared multisig UTXO and create multiple bilateral channels, which reduces the number of on-chain transactions and improves capital efficiency. Achieving greater scale by reducing complexity, Ark and Spark perform the same function as traditional channel factories with new designs and additional capabilities based on shared UTXOs.  Channel Factories 101 Channel factories have been around since the inception of Lightning. A factory is a multiparty contract where multiple users (not just two, as in a Dryja-Poon channel) cooperatively lock funds in a single multisig UTXO. They can open, close and update channels off-chain without updating the blockchain for each operation. Only when participants leave or the factory dissolves is an on-chain transaction…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:09
SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime

SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime

The post SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In a pivotal week for crypto infrastructure, the Solana network
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/12/16 20:44
Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Share
Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25