Why Bitcoin’s Popular Narratives Don’t Match the Data — James Check on 2026

Bitcoin’s price may look deceptively familiar, but according to onchain analyst James Check, the market beneath the surface has changed far more than most investors realize.

In a new interview with Cointelegraph, Check revisits a question he was asked earlier this year: Are we in a bull market or a bear market?

While Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near similar price levels, Check says that leverage, investor cost base, and sell-side behavior are now very different, and all those shifts matter. In fact, a majority of the capital currently invested in Bitcoin was acquired at higher prices, leaving many holders underwater and shaping a cautious sentiment.

One of the most persistent myths this cycle, Check argues, is the idea that long-term holders simply don’t sell. Onchain data shows that coins of all ages, from months to many years old, have been returning to the market at an unusually fast pace. This supply, he says, has played a significant role in recent price action, even if the narrative only caught up much later.

At the same time, the analyst pushes back against claims that exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Michael Saylor or corporate treasuries have “captured” Bitcoin. While those entities are important, they represent only a portion of total market activity. The bigger takeaway, he suggests, is how large and liquid Bitcoin has become, capable of absorbing massive flows without the kind of volatility seen in earlier cycles.

Looking ahead, Check shares his current framework for 2026, challenging both blind optimism and outright bearishness. The conversation also touches on sovereign adoption, portfolio construction and longer-term risks that most investors rarely think about.

Watch the full interview with James Check on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel to hear the complete analysis and the data behind it.

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