Kalshi starts 2026 hot after record 2025 year

Prediction market platform Kalshi opened 2026 with roughly $291 million in daily notional volume on January 1, doubling the $147 million recorded on December 1, 2025, a sign of continued momentum following a breakout year of twelvefold growth.

The strong start follows an explosive 2025 in which Kalshi processed $23.8 billion in total notional volume, representing growth of more than 1,100% year-over-year, according to data published on X. 

The platform handled 97 million transactions in 2025, which is over 1,680% higher than what it saw in 2024, with peak activity occurring on December 21, 2025, when daily notional volume hit $381.7 million, and transactions reached 1.5 million.

December proved to be Kalshi’s strongest month, generating $6.38 billion in notional volume as sports betting dominated platform activity. The final week of December alone came up at around $1.7 billion in volume.

Sports betting fired up Kalshi’s growth

Sports markets have emerged as a major driver of Kalshi’s expansion. Users traded contracts on outcomes across the NFL, NBA, College Football Playoff, and NHL. 

This has been a blessing and a curse for Kalshi, as it has positioned it to compete with traditional sportsbooks while operating under a different regulatory framework as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) designated contract market for event-based derivatives. 

The traditional sportsbooks are agitating that the same rule that applies to them applies to prediction market platforms like Kalshi, and state prosecutors are swooping in.

The platform is defending lawsuits in Massachusetts and New York alleging it operates illegal sports betting operations, with authorities in both states claiming that Kalshi’s event contracts constitute sports wagering that falls outside its CFTC authorization. The platform is currently banned in at least four states and faces restrictions in others.

Kalshi successfully defended its political betting contracts against CFTC challenges in 2024 and 2025, a victory that opened the door to election markets.

Together with rival Polymarket, the two platforms formed what analysts describe as a duopoly, generating more than $44 billion in combined trading volume throughout 2025. Polymarket did over $2.28 billion in trading volume in December, according to data from The Block.

Kalshi has also received institutional investments from heavyweight investors, having raised $1 billion in Series E funding at an $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm with participation from Sequoia Capital and Alphabet’s CapitalG. 

The company has also secured partnerships with CNN and CNBC to integrate real-time market data into editorial coverage. In November, Google announced that it would integrate both Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market data on its search and finance platforms.

Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood has proven to be a successful move, as it is reportedly now accounting for more than half of Kalshi’s betting volume, providing access to millions of retail traders already familiar with event-driven speculation.

Testing the limits in 2026

Given its January 1 performance, Kalshi may be closer to exceeding its 2025 daily peak of $382 million. However, sustaining such growth will depend on both market conditions and regulatory outcomes. 

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections may also impact Kalshi’s trajectory, as they give users the opportunity to make political bets, an activity that brought prediction markets, especially platforms like Polymarket, to the limelight during the 2024 presidential elections. 

The coming event could either validate the sector’s mainstream potential or expose limitations in market depth and accuracy.

Kalshi’s expansion beyond sports into politics, economics, and cultural events has helped to boost its appeal, but sports remain the core business. 

As traditional sportsbooks and cryptocurrency exchanges eye the prediction market space, competition is bound to get hot for a sector that has transitioned from a niche financial product to a mass-market phenomenon.

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