Analysts Split On Dogecoin Rally As Key Fib Level Dictates Next Move

Amid renewed volatility in the crypto market, the current dogecoin rally is forcing traders to reassess whether the move is sustainable or just noise.

Dogecoin surges 28% into key decision zone

Over the past four days, Dogecoin (DOGE/USDT) has jumped 28%, returning to a familiar decision point on higher timeframes. However, three closely followed analysts currently lean toward a “pullback-then-continue” structure rather than a full fade, as long as a crucial Fibonacci level is reclaimed and defended.

Trader Matt Hughes highlights the weekly 0.382 retracement at 0.13847 as the core pivot that bulls needed to win back. He stated that DOGE regaining the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 0.13847 is bullish for continued upside, especially after many traders had turned bearish at this major support area.

Hughes anchors this view to the prior demand zone he flagged last week, arguing that the “risk/reward in the 0.11-0.12 zone for DOGE is incredible here.” Moreover, this area remains an important reference for dip buyers if the current advance stalls and price retraces toward previous support.

Lower-timeframe structure fuels dead cat bounce debate

On the 4-hour DOGEUSDT chart from Binance futures, the pattern explains why “dead cat bounce” talk has emerged. Price ripped higher, tagged the prior range highs, and then backed off, exactly the type of sequence that can either resolve as a clean retest or devolve into an abrupt rollover, depending on follow-through.

Analyst Byzantine General broadly agrees with the pullback-first view. He expects DOGE to reset toward the $0.14 region before any renewed extension of the uptrend, noting that DOGE “made a pretty incredible move.” That said, he adds that a modest correction makes sense after taking out range highs, while the overall structure still looks strong rather than exhausted.

Moreover, this perspective aligns with typical short-term dogecoin price analysis, where sharp breaks above range highs often need to be retested from above to confirm support rather than produce a failed breakout.

Derivatives positioning and funding rates

On the same 4-hour layout, analysts are watching derivatives data closely. Velo’s aggregated open interest is shown pushing up to 4.714B, indicating rising speculative exposure. Cross-exchange funding rates are also positive, with Binance 0.01, Bybit 0.0099, and OKX 0.0082, pointing to a market leaning long but not yet in obvious euphoria based on these panels.

However, rising open interest and positive funding often act as a double-edged sword. They confirm growing participation and conviction, yet they can also set the stage for sharper liquidations if price snaps back through crowded zones. For now, the positioning backdrop suggests constructive but cautious dogecoin market sentiment rather than a blow-off top.

Cantonese Cat focuses on structure and resistance

Trader Cantonese Cat adopts a more tactical angle. He argues the rally can still “work” as long as price respects the prevailing structure and reacts cleanly at resistance. From his perspective, the recent move has been a “brutal retrace to 0.382,” which nonetheless keeps the pattern valid as a handle within a larger, potential 4-year cup and handle formation.

After price reached the identified resistance zone, Cantonese Cat followed up by noting it was “literally right on the money with resistance.” Moreover, he stressed that the next phase will unfold over time rather than in a single candle, remarking that “we’ve got a whole month ahead of us” to see how DOGE behaves from this area.

This structural focus underscores how many traders are treating the present region as a high-stakes inflection point. If the reaction at resistance remains orderly, bulls can argue it is healthy consolidation. If not, the pullback could morph into a deeper correction.

Key Fibonacci technical levels on multiple timeframes

On Hughes’s 4-hour chart, the roadmap is clearly laid out. The key 0.382 level sits at 0.13847, while the next retracement zones above are marked at 0.19070 for the 0.5 level and 0.26261 for the 0.618 level. These stepped targets provide a structured framework for upside continuation rather than chasing vertical candles.

On the monthly timeframe, the picture reinforces how tight the current trading band is. The present zone spans between 0.11778 (0.382) and 0.15428 (0.5), with 0.20210 (0.618) higher up. However, each of these levels acts as a checkpoint where price needs to demonstrate acceptance if the move is to evolve into a sustained trend instead of a one-off spike.

Furthermore, this cluster of Fibonacci retracements helps define dogecoin technical levels that many algorithmic and discretionary traders are watching closely. Acceptance or rejection around these prices may shape the next medium-term leg.

Is the dogecoin rally just a dead cat bounce?

The core “dead cat bounce” question remains conditional rather than settled. For now, if DOGE can maintain weekly acceptance above 0.13847 and push to reclaim the nearby monthly 0.15428 zone, which aligns with prior 4-hour range highs, the shared bias among the analysts points toward consolidation before another extension.

However, if price loses the 0.13847 level again, the pattern begins to resemble a failed reclaim instead of constructive consolidation. In that scenario, lower supports highlighted on the charts at 0.11778 and 0.09320 would likely return to focus for traders mapping out deeper dogecoin pullback scenarios and possible accumulation zones.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.14944, sitting between the immediate support and resistance bands outlined by the analysts. That said, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the move resolves as continuation or fades into another short-lived spike.

In summary, the current move in DOGE is defined less by hype and more by critical Fibonacci levels, derivatives positioning, and clear structural checkpoints, leaving traders to watch 0.13847 and 0.15428 as the next decisive markers.