Oil traders must watch this index in 2026

January 3 showed that 2026 might inaugurate a new era of resource wars as the U.S. Armed Forces executed a daring raid against one of the most oil-rich countries in the world.

The attack sparked immediate volatility in the commodity markets as many feared a massive supply shock, though the prices soon stabilized as no further escalation was initiated and as President Donald Trump made remarks reassuring to investors and oil magnates.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the attack is that attentive traders were forewarned by a rather roundabout indicator: The Pentagon Pizza Index.

In a January 3 post on X, the Pentagon Pizza Report account showed a sudden spike in orders from Pizzato Pizza, a late-night restaurant close to the Pentagon.

How traders use unconventional indicators to track geopolitical risk

Specifically, publicly available data on pizzerias close to the Pentagon showed a sudden spike in traffic shortly before the attack on Caracas, Venezuela, took place. Simultaneously, a linked yet separate indicator – the one tracking how busy bars close to the headquarters of the American military – suddenly collapsed.

Interestingly, the Soviet Union might have been the first to utilize the ‘Pizza Index’ as its intelligence services were allegedly monitoring pizza deliveries to the Pentagon to try to gauge if a major operation was underway.

With oil’s availability and price being closely linked to political and military actions in and around producer countries, the quaint index might only grow in importance later in 2026.

The Trump Administration was successful in seizing President Nicolas Maduro in the January 3 strike, but more turmoil might be in the cards. 

President Donald Trump hinted that the U.S. will be administering Venezuela for the foreseeable future, but, in reality, the country’s Vice President took over the reins with the apparent support of the military.

Why the Pizza Index will stay relevant throughout 2026

Even if the situation in South America remains quiet for the rest of the year, which is uncertain given the threatening remarks on Colombia, Brazil, and Cuba – multiple other oil-producing regions remain unstable.

Iran is, at press time, a prime contender for U.S. military action and for destabilizing the oil market. On the one hand, the country is a major oil producer in its own right, and on the other, it has the capacity to disrupt shipping in the critical Strait of Hormuz.

The ‘Pizza Index’ could become the final alert for attentive traders yet again soon, as President Trump recently stated that his administration is monitoring the ongoing protests in the Islamic Republic closely and hinted at a possible military strike.

Another possible area of concern might be the Gulf of Aden, as tensions between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen might rise. Given the region’s geopolitical importance, it is unlikely the U.S. would not be involved in any escalatory or deescalatory events affecting it.

Lastly, despite the long histories of the Pizza and Bar indices and their surprising utility, it is worth noting that investors should just use them as minor tools of analysis and supplementary signals. 

Featured image via Shutterstock