From halvings to macro: inside Bybit’s 2026 crypto outlook

Bybit’s 2026 Crypto Outlook argues Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle is fading as macro policy, derivatives markets, and tokenization reshape crypto’s risk and return profile.

Bybit, the world’s second‑largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its “2026 Crypto Outlook,” a research report that probes whether the long‑standing four‑year bitcoin cycle still explains market behavior in an era dominated by central banks, options desks, and institutional allocators. The study leans on derivatives market data, options‑implied probabilities, volatility trends, cross‑asset correlations, and global macro conditions to build a framework for how Bitcoin and the wider crypto market could trade through 2026.​

A central question is whether the halving‑anchored boom‑and‑bust pattern is still the market’s main compass. The report concludes that while historical cycles “remain relevant,” their dominance is fading as “macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure play a growing role in price formation.” In other words, traders can no longer treat the halving as a mechanical timing tool; they now have to read the Federal Reserve, equity indices, and options books with the same intensity they once reserved for on‑chain supply charts.​

Macro, markets, and event risk

On the macro front, the outlook notes that markets are pricing in further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a setup that “could support risk assets more broadly.” Bitcoin (BTC) has recently lagged U.S. equities, but the report highlights the potential for a “renewed positive correlation between bitcoin and major equity indices” if policy stays accommodative and liquidity conditions remain friendly. That aligns with broader risk‑asset positioning going into 2026, as investors rotate back into growth and high‑beta trades whenever rate‑cut expectations firm up.

Derivatives markets add a second lens. Based on options data, the report finds a 10.3% implied probability that bitcoin trades at 150,000 dollars by the end of 2026, stressing that this is “market pricing rather than a forecast.” Bybit’s researchers argue that options markets “may be conservatively positioned relative to the broader macro and regulatory environment,” suggesting room for positioning upside if policy, ETF inflows, or institutional mandates surprise to the bullish side, echoing dynamics seen after the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.​

The constructive tone is tempered by policy and event‑driven risk. The report points to a looming mid‑January MSCI decision on a potential index exclusion for Strategy, warning that such an outcome “could affect market sentiment,” particularly for equity‑linked crypto proxies. It also flags the possibility of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later in 2026, a shift that “could introduce volatility across asset classes” as carry trades unwind and global liquidity adjusts. Similar shocks from BOJ policy shifts in prior years have triggered cross‑asset de‑risking that spilled into bitcoin and major altcoins.​

Structural themes: tokenization and quantum risk

Beyond cyclical drivers, Bybit’s outlook leans heavily into structural change. The report identifies real‑world asset tokenization as a “key structural theme for 2026,” building on the “expansion of stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions in 2025.” That call tracks recent moves by major payment firms and banks to launch or integrate regulated stablecoins, positioning tokenized treasuries and on‑chain money funds as a core part of the next DeFi cycle.​

The study also underlines an industry‑wide push to reinforce crypto market infrastructure, highlighting “emerging technological risks such as those associated with advances in quantum computing.” While quantum threats remain mostly theoretical in the near term, the report frames them as a catalyst for upgraded cryptography, custody standards, and protocol‑level resilience, especially for high‑value chains that anchor tokenization, stablecoins, and institutional flows.​

Ultimately, the “2026 Crypto Outlook” concludes that although “market cycles, sentiment, and volatility remain defining features of crypto markets,” their interaction is evolving as institutional participation, regulatory engagement, and macro support give digital assets more room to diverge from historical patterns—even as uncertainty and episodic shocks remain part of the landscape. The full Bybit x Block Scholes report, available for download, provides the underlying data and methodology behind these claims.