OSL Trading Time: BTC OTC supply shrinks and institutions enter the market, ETH breaks and tests market confidence

1. Market observation

Keywords: Lido, ETH, BTC

Cryptocurrency markets have shown encouraging signs recently, with Bitcoin favored to hit new highs due to its increasing correlation with gold. However, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $95,000 and breaking below a key trendline, coupled with a 70% reduction in over-the-counter supply since 2021, which could indicate a long-term supply shock and price repositioning.

In terms of project development, Lido launched the third version of the Ethereum Liquidity Staking Protocol, Uniswap launched its Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain Unichain, and Solana's continued growth and increased institutional adoption make it a strong competitor to Bitcoin. Although the Ethereum market has shown resilience in the context of altcoin declines and growth is mainly driven by retail investors, its price recently fell below the $2,600 mark, causing market concerns.

From the perspective of institutional dynamics, the stablecoin market is expected to reach $16.97 billion by 2025. Visa plans to launch a Bitcoin rewards credit card in cooperation with Fold. Japanese company Gumi also plans to purchase $6.5 million in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Japanese stock Metaplanet has surged 3,575% in a year against the backdrop of Bitcoin accumulation. However, it is worth noting that investors' concerns about meme coins may affect the legitimacy of Bitcoin as an asset.

2. Key data (as of 09:40 HKT on February 12)

• S&P 500: 6,068.50 (+3.18% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,643.86 (+1.72% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.537% (-3.90 basis points year-to-date)

• US dollar index: 108.04 (-0.40% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $96,032 (+2.80% YTD), with daily spot volume of $32.49 billion

• Ethereum: $2,612.74 (-21.88% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $20.61 billion

3. ETF flows (February 11 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$80.5 million

• Ethereum ETF: $0 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attends Senate hearing (February 11, 23:00)

U.S. core CPI year-on-year in January (21:30, February 12)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 3.1% / Expected: 3.2%

U.S. CPI year-on-year in January (21:30, February 12)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.9% / Expected: 2.9%

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives (23:00, February 12)

2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook (February 13, 01:00)

Number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of the week ending February 8 (10,000) (21:30, February 13)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 219,000 / Expected: 216,000

U.S. core PPI annual rate in January (21:30, February 13)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 3.5% / Expected: 3.3%

5. Hot News

Trump nominates Brian Quintenz, head of crypto policy at a16z, as CFTC chairman, insider says

SEC confirms acceptance of Solana spot ETF applications submitted by 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, and VanEck

Powell says he will not promote central bank digital currency during his term

BitGo Considers IPO as Early as the Second Half of 2025, with a Valuation of Over $1.75 Billion

Ethereum Foundation to Provide $200,000 Grant to Support Pectra Ecosystem Upgrade

Lido Launches V3, Introducing Customizable “stVaults” to Support Advanced Ethereum Staking Strategies

Fed Chairman reiterates no need to rush to adjust interest rates

Trump Family Crypto Project WLFI Partners with Ondo Finance to Promote Adoption of Tokenized RWAs

Uniswap Labs: Layer2 network Unichain mainnet is now online

Publicly listed KULR Technology increases its Bitcoin holdings to 610.3

Hong Kong Confirms Bitcoin and Ethereum Can Be Used as Proof of Wealth for Investment Visas

FTX will repay $6.5 billion to $7 billion in the first phase of repayment

Treasure Chain will launch AI agent startup platform Mage in the coming weeks, with MAGIC as the core token

DIN launches airdrop query page and announces token economics

Binance Alpha Lists Autonolas (OLAS)

Matrixport: Ethereum may rebound due to low RSI and upgrade plan

Binance HODLer Airdrop Launches Solayer (LAYER)

Binance is suspected of significantly reducing its BTC and ETH holdings last month, turning to USDC, and the proportion of BNB reduction is relatively low

OpenAI board to reject Musk's $97 billion offer

OKX will launch IP spot trading on February 13

Analysts predict the probability of approval of LTC, DOGE, SOL, and XRP spot ETFs, with LTC being as high as 90%

NYSE Arca files for Cardano ETF for Grayscale

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