Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Could Trigger BTC Rally

• Bitcoin trades near $90,500 inside a tightening triangle as the Supreme Court delays ruling on Trump tariff legality.
  
• Polymarket traders assign 75% probability of BTC rally if tariffs struck down, with $150 billion in potential refunds at stake.
  
• Technical structure shows price defending $90,000, but a break below targets $86,000 with all major EMAs acting as overhead resistance.
  

Bitcoin price today trades near $90,500 as the market waits for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariff regime. The decision carries major implications for risk assets, with traders positioning for volatility in either direction.

Supreme Court Decision Creates Binary Setup

The Trump administration’s appeal has reached the Supreme Court after lower courts ruled the tariffs exceeded presidential authority. No timeline has been announced for a ruling, leaving the market in limbo.

Polymarket positioning shows clear conviction. Traders currently assign only a 25 percent probability that the court upholds the tariffs. More importantly, Bitcoin-focused traders are pricing in a roughly 75 percent chance of a rally if the duties are struck down.

The logic centers on reduced policy uncertainty and improved risk appetite. A tariff loss would ease cost pressures across industries, unlock capital flows into risk assets, and remove a major macro overhang. Trade lawyers estimate up to $150 billion in potential refund claims if the ruling goes against the administration.

Bitcoin has historically responded well to macro clarity after periods of uncertainty. The current consolidation reflects that traders are waiting rather than betting aggressively in either direction.

Triangle Pattern Shows Indecision Near Key Support

Bitcoin price today sits inside a descending triangle that has compressed volatility for weeks. The pattern formed after the drop from November highs above $120,000, and price is now testing the lower boundary near $90,000.

Key technical levels show a bearish structure:

• 20-day EMA: $90,138
• 50-day EMA: $91,572
• 100-day EMA: $96,193
• 200-day EMA: $99,835
• Supertrend: $95,121

All major EMAs sit above current price, forming a resistance ceiling. The 20-day EMA has capped every bounce attempt since late December. Buyers need to reclaim this level first before challenging the larger EMA cluster.

The triangle apex is approaching, which typically forces a resolution. A breakout above $91,500 would flip short-term momentum and open a path toward $95,000. A breakdown below $90,000 confirms the triangle and exposes the $86,000-$84,000 demand zone.

RSI And Bollinger Bands Signal Compression

Shorter timeframes show Bitcoin consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band at $90,043. The middle band sits at $91,360, marking the first resistance level on any bounce attempt.

The RSI reads 45.96, neutral but leaning bearish. This level typically precedes either a relief rally or another leg down, depending on which side of the triangle breaks first.

Volume has declined during the consolidation, which is normal inside a triangle pattern. The breakout or breakdown will likely come with a surge in volume, confirming the move.

Traders are watching $90,000 closely. This level has held as psychological support multiple times since December. Losing it would shift the bias firmly bearish and likely trigger stops positioned just below the round number.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The tariff ruling creates a binary scenario. If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, Bitcoin could rally sharply as risk-on positioning returns and macro uncertainty clears. A move above $91,500 with volume would confirm the breakout and target $95,000, with further upside toward $99,800 if momentum sustains.

If the court upholds the tariffs or if Bitcoin breaks below $90,000 before the ruling, the triangle pattern completes to the downside. That targets $86,000 initially, with deeper support at $84,000 if selling accelerates.

Reclaiming $91,500 shifts momentum. Losing $90,000 confirms the breakdown.