IREN Stock: Bernstein Names Top AI Pick Despite Earnings Miss

TLDR

• Nineteen analysts rate IREN “Moderate Buy” with a $67.64 average price target, 47% above the current $46.03 price.
• Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue hit $240.3 million, up 355% year-over-year, though EPS missed at ($0.34) versus $0.14 expected.
• A $9.7 billion five-year Microsoft agreement will generate $1.94 billion annually deploying NVIDIA GB300 GPUs in Texas.
• Bernstein analyst named IREN his top AI pick for 2026 as the company transitions from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.
• Sweetwater facility energization scheduled for April 2026 will add 1.4 gigawatts of capacity and 140,000 GPU deployment target.

IREN Limited closed Friday at $46.03, up 0.7% as analysts debate whether the stock’s 30% pullback from its $76.87 high creates a buying opportunity.

IREN Limited, IREN

Nineteen analysts cover the stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. Twelve recommend buying, five rate it hold, and two say sell. The average 12-month price target of $67.64 suggests 47% upside from current levels.

BTIG Research lifted its target from $32 to $75 in October. Roth Capital set a $94 price target in November. JPMorgan raised its target from $28 to $39 but kept an “underweight” rating.

Revenue Explosion Meets Earnings Reality

Q1 fiscal 2026 results showed IREN’s transformation in numbers. Revenue reached $240.3 million, up 355% year-over-year. That growth reflects the shift from pure Bitcoin mining to AI data center services.

The earnings miss tells a different story. IREN posted ($0.34) EPS versus the $0.14 consensus, missing by 48 cents. Revenue also came in below the $244.6 million estimate.

Adjusted EBITDA hit $92 million for the quarter. Net margin reached 86.96% while return on equity was negative at 3.60%. Analysts forecast 0.43 EPS for the full fiscal year.

The stock carries a market cap of $13.05 billion with a 23.73 price-to-earnings ratio. Its 4.25 beta reflects high volatility relative to the broader market.

The Microsoft Game Changer

November 2025 brought a $9.7 billion five-year Microsoft agreement. The deal will generate approximately $1.94 billion in annual revenue with 85% EBITDA margins projected.

The contract provides stable revenue compared to volatile cryptocurrency mining. IREN raised $1 billion through convertible notes in late 2025 to fund the infrastructure buildout.

Sweetwater facility energization is scheduled for April 2026. That project adds 1.4 gigawatts of power capacity. Management targets 140,000 GPU deployments by year-end 2026. Total secured power capacity now stands at 3 gigawatts.

Institutional investors own 41.08% of shares. Value Aligned Research Advisors holds 3,873,337 shares worth $181.8 million after increasing its stake 18.6% in Q3.

Bitcoin traded near $90,600 heading into the weekend. Mining peers showed mixed performance: Marathon Digital fell 2.0%, Riot Platforms rose 1.3%, CleanSpark dropped 3.1%.

December CPI data arrives January 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs January 27-28. Traders pared rate cut expectations after Friday’s jobs data.

IREN filed a Form S-8 to register 17.5 million shares for its 2025 employee compensation plan. The next earnings release is expected around February 11 according to Zacks.

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