Bernstein Names Amazon and Meta as Best Large-Cap Tech Stocks for 2026

TLDR

• Amazon and Meta named top large-cap tech stock picks for 2026 by Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik despite trailing S&P 500 in 2025
• Amazon gained 12.8% while Meta rose 5.5% in 2025, compared to S&P 500’s 19.4% increase
• Analyst sets $300 price target for Amazon (21.7% upside) and $870 for Meta (35.5% upside)
• Project Rainier AI supercomputer with 500,000 chips expected to boost AWS growth in 2026
• Meta’s heavy AI and data center investments position stock as “most compelling” Magnificent 7 catch-up trade

Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik has identified Amazon and Meta Platforms as his top technology stock selections for 2026. The choice comes after both companies underperformed the broader market last year.

Amazon stock climbed 12.8% in 2025. Meta Platforms gained 5.5% during the same timeframe. The S&P 500 posted a 19.4% gain by comparison.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

Shmulik reaffirmed his “Buy” rating on both stocks in a client note issued Monday. The analyst predicts investor attention will shift from AI model performance to actual AI tool adoption in 2026.

Amazon Web Services Set for Acceleration

Shmulik expects Amazon to overcome perceptions that its cloud business lags behind competitors in AI-related revenue. The analyst blamed Amazon’s weak 2025 performance on slow AWS growth relative to rivals and stagnant retail operating income.

Tariff challenges and limited major product announcements also contributed to the stock’s underperformance. AWS topped net new bookings in Q3 2025, setting the stage for acceleration.

Project Rainier represents the key growth driver for AWS. The AI supercomputer launched in late 2025 with nearly 500,000 Trainium2 chips across U.S. data centers. The infrastructure supports hyperscale AI training operations.

Cost-cutting layoffs, efficiency improvements, and robotics adoption should boost retail margins, according to Shmulik. The analyst maintained his $300 price target for Amazon stock, representing 21.7% upside from current levels.

Amazon shares traded at 248.05 in midday action. The stock has posted gains for six straight trading sessions.

Meta Offers Highest Upside Among Tech Stocks

Meta Platforms carries the highest upside potential among Bernstein’s coverage universe. The stock also presents elevated risk, Shmulik noted.

The company continues recovering from a sell-off following its Q3 earnings report on October 29. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast beyond analyst expectations during that call. The increased spending targets data center expansion and AI-powered superintelligence development.

Meta’s frontier-model investment cycle forced a reset of 2025 spending, earnings per share, and free-cash-flow projections. Shmulik characterized the outcome as a “coin flip” on whether Meta can deliver a best-in-class model early in 2026.

The downside scenario involves Meta’s model benchmarking close to but behind competitors. This would require ongoing investments over an uncertain timeline to catch up.

Shmulik expects Meta’s capital expenditure growth intensity to peak in 2026. The company has demonstrated an ability to grow and monetize AI products without leading in large language models.

Recent Trading Activity and Leadership Changes

Meta stock dipped to 648.76 in midday trading. Shares are trading above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day line.

The company announced Monday that Dina Powell McCormick will serve as president and vice chair. McCormick will help oversee Meta’s AI initiatives in her new role.

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