Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Signals 50% or More BTC Price Gains by March

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 52-week correlation with gold reached zero for the first time since mid-2022 and may turn negative by the end of January.

Key takeaways:

• BTC–gold divergence has historically preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.

• Liquidity trends and cycle fractals point to BTC leading the way with a $144,000–$150,000 price target.

Past fractals show Bitcoin rallying after gold

In the past four comparable instances, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months after its correlation with gold turned negative.

Bitcoin broke this pattern in May 2021, when it fell 26% instead of rallying.

Back then, Tesla had suspended Bitcoin payments, while China had intensified its crackdown on mining and trading, triggering forced deleveraging across the market and overriding the historical correlation signal.

The current setup looks bullish due to several macro tailwinds, including rising global liquidity (as tracked by the global M2 supply) and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.

“Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have aligned with periods of increased global liquidity,” said Matt Hougan, the global head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, in their latest report, adding:

Under the same macro conditions, gold surged 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin’s returns were almost flat. But, according to Hougan, BTC will take the lead over gold in 2026.

“Although gold and Bitcoin occasionally move in tandem, their long-term correlation is only mildly positive, which we somewhat counterintuitively find attractive,” he wrote, adding:

Analyst Tuur Demeester echoed a similar sentiment, saying that “accelerated money printing remains a major tailwind for Bitcoin” in 2026.

Bitcoin mirroring 2020-2021 bull cycle

A 56% rally could push the BTC price into the $144,000-150,000 price range.

A similar bullish case emerged from a long-term fractal shared by crypto analyst Midas, who compared Bitcoin’s current structure with its 2020–2021 cycle.

The chart showed BTC completing a prolonged downtrend, followed by a multi-month accumulation phase and a steady pre-bull breakout, a sequence that previously preceded a parabolic advance toward $70,000.

Related: Bitcoin attempts $92K breakout as stocks hit new record on low US CPI data

In the current 2024–2026 setup, Bitcoin appears to be following the same course, with price already transitioning out of accumulation and into a pre-parabolic phase.

The next leg may resemble the prior bull expansion, placing $150,000 as a primary target if the fractal continues to play out.