POL is currently trading at the $0.16 level and giving an uptrend signal with a 6.78% rise in the last 24 hours. However, mixed signals like the bearish histogram on MACD and Supertrend being bearish indicate that the market is at a crossroads. While RSI is hovering in the neutral zone (56.01), both upside breakout and downside pullback scenarios carry equal probability. This analysis aims to help traders conduct their own analyses by examining both possibilities in depth.
Current Market Situation
POL’s current price is at the $0.16 level and showed a 6.78% increase in the last 24 hours. The daily range stayed between $0.15 – $0.17, and volume is notable at $218.12M. The overall trend is classified as uptrend, but technical indicators present a mixed picture.
RSI at 56.01 is in the neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold conditions. MACD shows a bearish histogram, signaling weakening momentum. From an EMA perspective, the price is above EMA20 ($0.16), with short-term bullish bias prevailing. Supertrend is bearish and pointing to $0.18 resistance.
Key levels: Supports at $0.1529 (strength score 72/100) and $0.1622 (62/100). Resistances at $0.1676 (76/100) and $0.1722 (60/100). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified a total of 13 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D (1S/3R), 3D (2S/4R), 1W (3S/3R). This distribution shows the market is balanced and leaves the door open to both directions. In the market context, there has been no significant news flow for POL recently, creating an environment where technical levels take center stage.
This setup offers traders an opportunity to calculate risk/reward ratios. From the current price, bullish target $0.2106 (31.6% upside potential), bearish target $0.1322 (17.4% downside potential) draws a balanced R/R profile. For educational purposes, you can practice scenario-based planning by monitoring these levels.
Scenario 1: Upside Scenario
How Does This Scenario Unfold?
For the upside scenario, a clear break above the $0.1676 resistance (76/100 strength) is required first. This breakout should be supported by increasing volume, with price advancing toward $0.1722 (60/100). Confirmation signals to watch include RSI rising above 60, MACD histogram crossing above the zero line, and sustained trading above EMA20.
From an MTF perspective, breaking the first two of three resistances on 1D can trigger bullish momentum. Passing two of four resistances on 3D strengthens the weekly uptrend. Volume increase (above $218M) confirms buyer entry. Supertrend flipping bullish (above $0.18) provides additional confirmation. In this scenario, monitor short-term EMA crossovers (EMA20 > EMA50). Holding $0.1622 support on post-breakout pullbacks is critical; a break below invalidates the scenario.
Educational note: In upside breakouts, watch for ‘retest’ moves – if price tests resistance as support and continues upward, participation is strong. This helps filter false breakouts.
Target Levels
First target after $0.1722 is the $0.18 Supertrend level, followed by the main bullish target derived from MTF at $0.2106 (score 22). This level is a strong Fibonacci extension point on the 1W timeframe. Potential extension up to $0.22, but volume and momentum confirmation required at each step. Invalidation: Close below $0.1622 support invalidates the scenario and signals a shift to bearish side.
Scenario 2: Downside Scenario
Risk Factors
The downside scenario triggers with rejection at $0.1676 resistance. If price breaks below $0.1622 support (62/100), momentum accelerates with bearish MACD. RSI dropping below 50, Supertrend remaining bearish, and increasing selling pressure on volume are risk factors. Close below EMA20 breaks the short-term bullish structure.
On MTF, one support break on 1D creates a chain reaction; 2 supports on 3D and 3 on 1W support downside pressure. Volume spikes in the selling direction (above $218M with bearish candles) signal institutional selling. In a newsless environment, general crypto market weakness (BTC dominance rise) adds risk. In this scenario, testing $0.1529 support is expected; if not held, it gains momentum. Invalidation: Close above $0.1676 resistance invalidates the bearish scenario.
Educational note: In downtrends, watch for ‘lower high/lower low’ formations – a new low below $0.1676 confirms trend change. Use dynamic levels (ATR-based) for stop-losses.
Protection Levels
First protection at $0.1529 (72/100), followed by main bearish target $0.1322 (score 31). This level aligns with 3D and 1W support clusters. Deeper pullback possible to $0.12, but limited by MTF levels. Volume decrease at each level can cap rallies. Invalidation: Break above $0.1722 resistance collapses the scenario.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: $0.1676 – upside break is bullish, rejection below is bearish. $0.1622 support is critical pivot; break below gives bearish weight, hold increases bullish odds. Confirmation signals: Volume (increase for upside, selling spike for downside), RSI (60+ bull, 50- bear), MACD histogram zero line cross. MTF alignment essential – 1D break must be confirmed by 3D/1W. Daily closes are decisive; volume low in Asia session, volatility rises on US open. Traders should manage risk by setting clear invalidation criteria for each scenario.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
POL’s balance at $0.16 offers traders preparation opportunities for both scenarios. Monitoring points: $0.1676/$0.1622 pivots, volume changes, RSI/MACD updates. Access detailed data from POL Spot Analysis and POL Futures Analysis pages. Let this analysis help you understand market dynamics; do your own research.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/pol-rise-or-fall-january-14-2026-scenario-analysis
