Boeing (BA) Stock: Bernstein Names Aerospace Giant Top Pick for 2026 Recovery

TLDR

• Bernstein names Boeing its top Aerospace & Defense pick for 2026 with a price target raised to $298 from $277
• 737 production currently at 42 aircraft per month and 787 at 8 per month, with rates expected to climb over next five years
• Company projects low single-digit billions in free cash flow for 2026, with Bernstein forecasting over $11 billion by 2028
• Boeing’s current backlog means only half of 737 and 787 orders will be delivered by 2030, not including future orders
• Defense segment expected to return to positive cash generation in 2027 after F-47 program win

Bernstein has picked Boeing as its best Aerospace & Defense stock for 2026. The firm raised its price target to $298 from $277 while keeping an Outperform rating.

The Boeing Company, BA

The brokerage says Boeing’s multi-year recovery is finally gaining momentum. Analysts led by Douglas Harned believe the company is positioned well in a market where demand will exceed supply through 2030.

Boeing has shown it can move quickly once investors gain confidence in production ramps. The stock currently trades at $242.61, with the new target representing a 23% upside.

Production numbers are climbing. The 737 program now produces 42 aircraft per month. The 787 program delivers 8 aircraft monthly.

Bernstein expects margins and cash generation to improve as production rates increase over the next five years. By 2030, Boeing will have delivered only about half of its current 737 and 787 backlogs before counting future orders.

Cash Flow Projections Strengthen Bull Case

The fourth quarter saw some investor concerns after cash flow worries emerged. The 777X certification delays and higher capital expenditure for facility expansion caused the pullback.

Bernstein views this as a buying opportunity. The firm says 777X issues are timing-related and the increased spending is necessary to handle massive backlogs.

Management guided for low single-digit billions in free cash flow for 2026. This includes a $700 million headwind from a Department of Justice payment.

Bernstein forecasts a sharp improvement in coming years. The firm expects free cash flow to exceed $11 billion by 2028 as inventories unwind and production rates rise.

Defense Business Turns Corner

The defense side of Boeing’s business appears to be stabilizing. Charges that hurt cash flow in recent years are mostly resolved.

The F-47 program win should revitalize Boeing Defense. Bernstein forecasts the defense segment will return to positive cash generation in 2027.

Boeing Global Services continues performing well. The unit delivers high margins supported by aftermarket demand and a growing commercial mix.

Boeing delivered 600 aircraft in 2025, marking a 72% surge and the highest level since 2018. The company secured 1,075 net new orders last year, beating Airbus for the first time in seven years.

Delta Air Lines recently ordered up to 60 Boeing 787 Dreamliners with deliveries starting in 2031. This order supports Delta’s international growth plans.

The company delivered 160 commercial aircraft in the fourth quarter of 2025. This included various models of the 737, 767, 777, and 787 Dreamliner.

Bernstein initially upgraded Boeing to Outperform in April 2025 with a $218 target. The firm now sees increasing confidence in the company’s growth trajectory as production increases gain traction.

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