Key highlights:
- Prediction markets reached a record $701.7 million in daily trading volume, signaling rapid mainstream adoption.
- Kalshi dominated activity, capturing roughly two-thirds of all trades amid growing competition.
- Regulators across the U.S. and abroad are increasing scrutiny as volumes and valuations surge.
Prediction betting platforms set a new trading volume record of $701.7 million, despite increasing regulatory pressure in the U.S. and elsewhere.
American platform Kalshi leads the market, accounting for roughly two-thirds of total trading volume – $465.9 million. Competitors Polymarket and Opinion combined for approximately $100 million in transactions, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Gate Research.
The new record surpassed the previous figure of $666.6 million, set the day before. Kalshi had already led the market by a similar “_moz”>
Several major crypto exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have already integrated prediction betting features or are planning to do so. Self-custodial wallet developers, such as MetaMask, have taken similar steps.
These integrations and rising trading volumes have drawn the attention of Wall Street. Market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi are now valued in the billions of dollars.
Regulators take aim
Prediction markets came under renewed regulatory scrutiny earlier this month.
An anonymous Polymarket user placed a bet of nearly $30,000 on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro just hours before his arrest. The wager generated more than $400,000 in profit and raised suspicions of insider trading.
Lawmakers in New York are preparing to consider a bill that would ban certain markets related to politics, sports, the stock market, and other areas.
Connecticut, New York, Nevada, and New Jersey are among the U.S. states seeking to impose restrictions on prediction market operators, prompting counter-lawsuits.
A federal judge in Tennessee recently temporarily barred state regulators from taking action against Kalshi after the platform sued the state over demands that it stop offering contracts for sporting events.
This week, it was revealed that Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket in December, classifying prediction markets as gambling.
Prediction markets continue to show steady growth in trading activity, even as regulators in multiple jurisdictions tighten oversight. This expansion is occurring alongside rising interest from traditional financial institutions and technology companies.
Looking ahead
From a data-driven analytical perspective, the explosive growth of prediction markets resembles the emergence of derivatives markets in the 1970s and 1980s. At the time, financial futures also faced regulatory resistance before becoming an integral part of the global financial system.
However, modern prediction markets introduce fundamentally new risks. They may influence the outcomes of the very events being traded, creating a potential feedback loop between forecasts and reality.
Analysis of platform architectures also highlights potential vulnerabilities to coordinated manipulation and public opinion shaping. Unlike traditional financial derivatives, which rely on objective market data, prediction markets often depend on subjective assessments of future events.
The key question remains whether these platforms will ultimately democratize forecasting, or become a new tool for influencing public behavior.
Source: https://coincodex.com/article/80099/kalshi-leads-prediction-markets-as-volumes-surge-to-701m/
