Bitcoin just touched a critical price point but this order book signal suggests the move to $100k might backfire

Bitcoin (BTC) nearly touched $98,000 overnight before settling around $96,000, up roughly 5.5% over recent sessions. The rally reignited a familiar question: is this the setup for a sustained move above $100,000, or another fragile push built on thin order books and positioning games?

Glassnode’s latest analysis reveals a nuanced picture, where mechanical positioning drove the recent move while broader structural demand remains uneven and liquidity stays compressed.

Supply meets demand at a critical threshold

The current price sits inside a dense cluster of long-term holder supply accumulated between April and July 2025, spanning roughly $93,000 to $110,000.

Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows this overhead supply zone, where rebounds since November have repeatedly stalled. Each attempt has encountered renewed selling pressure, preventing the price from sustaining structural recovery.

This region has consistently served as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull markets.

The short-term holder’s cost basis currently stands at $98,300, reflecting the average entry price of recent buyers. Glassnode notes that reclaiming and holding above this level has historically marked the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends.

The price’s ability to consolidate above $98,300 remains necessary to restore confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.

Long-term holder behavior provides context for the amount of overhead supply the market must absorb. While long-term holders remain net sellers, the distribution rate has slowed materially from the aggressive selling seen throughout the second half of 2025.

Glassnode reports that long-term holders are currently realizing approximately 12,800 BTC per week in net profit, down from cycle peaks above 100,000 BTC per week.

This moderation suggests profit-taking remains active but far less aggressive than during prior distribution phases.

Institutional flows stabilize, spot markets improve

Institutional balance-sheet flows have completed a full reset.

After prolonged outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, net flows have stabilized. Spot ETFs have turned positive, re-establishing themselves as the primary marginal buyer.

Bitcoin ETFs register $1.5 billion in net inflows for January, with nearly $1.6 billion in inflows registered between Jan. 13 and 14, according to Farside Investors data.

Spot market behavior has turned constructive. Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta measures have returned to a buy-dominant regime, reflecting a shift away from persistent sell-side pressure.

Coinbase, which has been the most consistent source of selling throughout consolidation, has meaningfully slowed its distribution.

While spot participation is not yet displaying the persistent, aggressive accumulation typically seen during full trend expansion phases, the transition back into a net-buying posture represents a constructive structural shift.

Mechanical moves on thin volume

Short liquidations mechanically reinforced the push into the $96,000 region, but it unfolded on relatively thin derivatives volume.

Glassnode notes that futures turnover has remained well below the elevated activity seen throughout most of 2025.

The breakout occurred in a comparatively light liquidity environment where modest positioning shifts drove disproportionately large price responses. In practical terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the market and lift the price through resistance.

This dynamic connects directly to the liquidity problem visible in order books. Aggregated 2% market depth has declined roughly 30% from 2025 highs, according to data provider Kaiko.

On Binance specifically, 1% depth exceeded $600 million at the October 2025 peak but fell below $400 million by Dec. 20. Thinner books amplify price swings, making the tape more sensitive to large flows and strategic positioning.

Blockchain data adds texture to this narrative.

On Dec. 31, market maker Wintermute net-deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated during low-activity windows.

Large exchange deposits during thin hours raise the risk of outsized tape impact, especially when books lack depth.

However, the manipulation framing has limits. A widely circulated claim on Dec. 30 alleged “multi-billion dollar manipulation,” but on-chain transfers referenced totaled less than $30 million.

The better explanation for sharp intraday moves is structural fragility combined with stop-hunting rather than provable coordinated schemes.

$100,000 as a mechanical attractor

The $100,000 level sits at a convergence point where cost basis, options exposure, and dealer hedging align. Coin Metrics notes that call open interest is clustered around $100,000 strike prices for late-January expiries.

Glassnode reports that dealers are short gamma between approximately $95,000 and $104,000, which can reinforce upside moves as dealers hedge by buying spot or futures when prices rise.

In a short gamma environment, hedging flows no longer absorb price moves. Instead, they reinforce them.

This structure creates fragile stability. Volatility can remain low while price is contained, but once momentum develops, moves are more likely to accelerate than fade.

With spot trading around the $95,000 to $96,000 area, the price has moved into a short gamma zone where sustained action supported by volume is more likely to trigger directional hedging flows.

Options behavior around the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. In short to mid-term maturities up to roughly three months, the call premium bought has significantly outweighed the call premium sold, indicating active demand for near-dated upside exposure.

In contrast, longer-dated maturities show the opposite behavior, as richer call premiums further out the curve were used as opportunities to sell upside.

This split suggests the market is positioning for a potential retest of the $100,000 area while simultaneously expressing hesitation about sustained acceptance above that level over longer horizons.

Volatility deferred, not resolved

Implied volatility remains low across the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL reading around the 40s.
However, this reading masks underlying fragility. Skew continues to price downside risk, with the 25-delta skew remaining biased toward puts, particularly at mid and longer maturities.

This reflects a market that is comfortable carrying exposure but unwilling to do so without insurance.

The coexistence of low volatility and negative skew highlights a key tension. Participants are not positioning for immediate downside, but they continue to pay for asymmetric protection.

Volatility increases gradually with maturity, suggesting uncertainty is assigned to time rather than to a specific near-term catalyst, consistent with a market that expects short-term stability while remaining exposed to latent risk.

The $100,000 test

If Bitcoin is genuinely setting up for a sustained move above $100,000, two conditions need to align.
First, price must reclaim and hold above the $98,300 short-term holder cost basis, placing recent buyers back in profit and reducing the incentive to sell into rallies.

Second, liquidity and flows need to improve simultaneously. ETF inflows remaining positive provide one signal, but depth stabilization matters more. If the sub-$400 million Binance 1% depth regime persists, the market remains vulnerable to whipsaws.

Profit-taking has cooled, distribution from long-term holders has slowed, and classic late-cycle euphoria metrics aren’t flashing red. But liquidity fragility introduces a wildcard.

Order books are measurably thinner than at October highs, and large flows during low-activity windows can produce outsized tape moves.

The $100,000 level matters because it’s where multiple structural forces converge, such as cost basis, options exposure, and dealer hedging, making it a natural attractor if conditions stabilize.

Whether Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 and holds depends less on narrative and more on whether the market can rebuild depth while maintaining positive flows. The indicators are green, distribution pressure has eased, and institutional demand is stabilizing.

But the mechanics remain fragile, and the recent move happened on thin volume with mechanical support from short covering.

That’s the current state of play, where modest capital can generate significant movement, but sustainability requires deeper accumulation to follow.