Ada nearly at severe tropical storm strength off Catanduanes

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Ada (Nokaen) was already over the coastal waters of Baras, Catanduanes, as of 10 am on Saturday, January 17.

Ada is moving northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h), but if its track shifts further westward, it could make landfall in Catanduanes.

The tropical storm’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 85 km/h before dawn on Saturday, almost at severe tropical storm strength. Under the classification of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a severe tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 89 to 117 km/h.

Ada maintained its maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h late Saturday morning, with gustiness of up to 115 km/h, but PAGASA is not ruling out intensification into a severe tropical storm.

However, by Tuesday afternoon or evening, January 20, Ada could just be a tropical depression due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan.

PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook, issued at 11 am on Saturday, shows Catanduanes expected to receive the most rain in the next 24 hours. Beyond that period, fewer areas may see significant rain, but floods and landslides are still likely.

Saturday noon, January 17, to Sunday noon, January 18

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Catanduanes
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

Sunday noon, January 18, to Monday noon, January 19

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

As of 11 am on Saturday, here are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• eastern part of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, San Lorenzo Ruiz, San Vicente, Talisay, Basud, Mercedes, Daet, Paracale)
• eastern and central parts of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Ocampo, Goa, Lagonoy, Milaor, Nabua, Buhi, Caramoan, Baao, Cabusao, Bato, Camaligan, Pili, Sipocot, Tigaon, Pamplona, Garchitorena, Iriga City, San Fernando, Magarao, Minalabac, Balatan, Libmanan, Naga City, Calabanga, Bombon, Bula, Canaman, Pasacao, Sagñay, San Jose, Presentacion, Gainza, Lupi)
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Northern Samar

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• eastern part of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Lopez, Calauag, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco, Mulanay, Catanauan, General Luna, Macalelon, Gumaca, Pitogo, Unisan, Atimonan, Plaridel, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands
• Marinduque
• eastern part of Romblon (Cajidiocan, Magdiwang, San Fernando)
• rest of Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• Masbate
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte (Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Tunga, Jaro, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Dagami, Pastrana, Tanauan, Tabontabon, Julita, Dulag, Tolosa, La Paz, Mayorga, MacArthur, Kananga, Capoocan, Leyte, Calubian, San Isidro, Tabango, Burauen, Ormoc City, Matag-ob, Villaba, Albuera, Palompon, Merida, Isabel)
• northern part of Cebu (Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands

Signal No. 3 could be raised if Ada becomes a severe tropical storm.

The northeast monsoon and Ada’s periphery are also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Saturday, January 17

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, northern Cebu, Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands

Sunday, January 18

• Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Bicol, Northern Samar

Monday, January 19

• Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

In addition, there is still a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges with peak heights of up to 2 meters in Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran within 48 hours.

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PAGASA also updated its warnings for the country’s coastal waters late Saturday morning.

Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 5 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Northern Samar; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of Babuyan Islands; eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes and northern mainland Quezon; remaining seaboard of Aurora; eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Remaining seaboard of Quezon; eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands; northern and eastern seaboards of Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Kalayaan Islands, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, northern mainland Cebu, Bantayan Islands, Biliran, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Occidental; western seaboards of Calamian Islands, mainland Palawan, and Samar; eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental; northern seaboard of Leyte; remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region, Bicol, and Northern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Ada is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2026.

PAGASA expects two to eight tropical cyclones to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the first half of 2026. These are the estimates per month:

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 1 or 2
• June – 1 or 2

– Rappler.com