Garrett Jin, a whale: The current Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from that of 2022; it's too early to be bearish.

PANews reported on January 19th that Garrett Jin, suspected to be the "1011 insider whale," posted on the X platform, stating that comparing the current Bitcoin market to 2022 is extremely unprofessional. He believes that there are fundamental differences between the two in terms of long-term price structure, macroeconomic background, investor composition, and distribution of tokens.

• He pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment is the complete opposite of the high-inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, and in particular, the AI technological revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a phase of rate cuts, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk-averse behavior of capital. Since 2020, Bitcoin and the year-on-year change in CPI have shown a clear negative correlation, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability outcome.
• From a technical perspective, 2021-2022 formed a weekly M-top pattern, while 2025 represents a breakout from the upward channel, which, statistically, is more likely a "bear trap" before a rebound. He pointed out that for a bear market like the one in 2022 to repeat itself, stringent conditions must be met simultaneously, including a resurgence of inflationary shocks, the central bank restarting interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive drop in prices below $80,850. It is premature to be bearish before these conditions are met.
• In terms of investor structure, the period from 2020 to 2022 was a highly leveraged speculative market dominated by retail investors. However, since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking up supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a distinctly different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.