Is Apple stock a buy after massive jump in China iPhone dominance?

The technology giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) recently unveiled strong figures in China for the part of its business that originally made the company a household name: smartphones.

Specifically, Apple’s iPhone shipments to the People’s Republic jumped 28% during the holiday quarter, putting it in the top spot in the market. Similarly, the blue-chip firm’s market share in China jumped to 21.8% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, marking a notable increase from 16.8% once year earlier.

The strong result in the world’s second-largest economy in nominal terms, and top in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), also brought a second wind to the bullish forecasts for AAPL stock in 2026.

Is Apple stock a buy in 2026?

Indeed, Apple shares are, on average, expected to rally 17.04% to $299.06 in 2026, with some of the most bullish recent Wall Street revisions coming from Wedbush at $350 and Evercore ISI at $330.

Notably, the strong iPhone figures showcase that the firm’s bull case is not solely reliant on Apple Intelligence and that its previous core business remains an important factor, unlike for many of Apple’s peers. 

For example, the company’s traditional rival, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), appears to have recently become increasingly tied to artificial intelligence (AI) – and increasingly vulnerable to the possibility of the AI bubble – as the firm’s previous core business of operating systems (OS) appears to be in decline thanks to widespread user dissatisfaction with Windows 11.

Why the iPhone AAPL stock tailwinds could be short lived

Elsewhere, Apple’s iPhone renaissance might prove short-lived as an alleged memory crunch appears poised to crack down on the entire smartphone market. 

Specifically, Micron (NASDAQ: MU) recently described the shortage as ‘unprecedented’ amidst the growing demands of AI data centers, putting supply for both the consumer PC market and the smartphone industry at risk.

Apple shares suffer a significant correction in 2026

Whatever happens to the iPhone market later in 2026 and 2027, the recent news from China could indeed prove pivotal in reinvigorating AAPL stock’s drive towards the lofty price targets Wall Street assigned to the equity.

Despite rallying a respectable 14.77% in the last 12 months, Apple shares have been struggling since 2026 started. AAPL stock closed trading at $255.52 on Friday, January 16, meaning it has declined 5.72% so far year-to-date.

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