XRP bulls face psychological test as Glassnode flags February 2022 pattern

Glassnode says XRP’s market structure mirrors February 2022, with short-term buyers accumulating below 6–12M holders and $2 acting as a key stress zone.

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported Monday that XRP (XRP) has returned to a cost-basis configuration last observed in February 2022, with recent buyers accumulating at price levels that leave earlier cohorts underwater, according to a note shared via X.

Glassnode offers fresh XRP analysis

The firm identified a rotation in realized prices by age band, stating that “the current market structure for XRP closely resembles February 2022.” Glassnode noted that “psychological pressure on top buyers builds over time,” characterizing the current market environment as one testing holder patience.

According to Glassnode’s analysis, wallets active in the short-term window, approximately the one-week to one-month cohort, are accumulating below the cost basis of holders in the six-month to 12-month band. The data indicates that newer demand is entering at prices lower than what mid-term holders paid, the firm said.

The relationship matters because cohorts typically behave differently when price revisits their cost basis, according to the analytics firm. When spot price trades below a cohort’s realized price, that cohort is on average underwater. If the market rallies back toward that level, some of that supply can become available as holders seek to break even, creating overhead liquidity that can limit upside until absorbed, Glassnode stated.

The firm’s “Realized Price by Age” chart, using a short moving average, displays cohort realized prices against spot price. The chart shows a gap between shorter-term and six-to-12-month cost bases during recent consolidation, mirroring the February 2022 pattern, according to Glassnode.

The analytics firm also referenced a Nov. 24, 2025 post identifying a major psychological price level where cohort stress has been most visible in flows. Since early 2025, each retest of that level produced significant weekly losses, indicating that many holders have been exiting at a loss as price revisits that zone, the firm reported.

Glassnode’s realized loss estimates suggest the level represents not just a technical chart level, but a behavioral zone where spending decisions change and where capitulation or forced de-risking can cluster, according to the firm.

In February 2022, XRP experienced a sharp round-trip pattern, according to historical data. After declining to an early-February low, the digital asset rallied to the month’s peak, then reversed in the latter half of the month as macro risk accelerated. The late-month decline coincided with the Russia-Ukraine escalation and the Feb. 24 invasion, which impacted risk assets broadly and pushed major cryptocurrencies lower intraday, consistent with risk-off sentiment across the crypto market, Glassnode noted.