Twee maanden rood. Dat is zeldzaam in een bull cycle. On-chain data toont een markt onder stress, maar ook signalen die we eerder zagen bij lokale bodems. .Twee maanden rood. Dat is zeldzaam in een bull cycle. On-chain data toont een markt onder stress, maar ook signalen die we eerder zagen bij lokale bodems. .
Bitcoin kopers staan twee maanden op verlies, capitulatie of koopkans?
Twee maanden rood. Dat is zeldzaam in een bull cycle. On-chain data toont een markt onder stress, maar ook signalen die we eerder zagen bij lokale bodems. .takeaway-box { position: relative; border: 0px; padding: 20px; border-radius: 0px; background: #3b008312; } .takeaway-box h3:before { content: ""; width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #C4C4C4; border-left: 6px solid transparent; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 32px; } .takeaway-box h3:after { content: ""; position: absolute; width: 0px; height: 39px; border-bottom: 32px solid #3b0083; border-right: 21px solid transparent; top: -7px; right: -21px; } .takeaway-box h3 { font-weight: 600; font-size: 16px; line-height: 150%; letter-spacing: 0.04em; text-transform: uppercase; color: #FFFFFF; background: #3b0083; width: max-content; padding: 4px 25px 4px 10px; left: -26px; position: relative; top: -13px; margin-bottom: 4px; } .takeaway-box ul { list-style: none; padding-left: 0; } .takeaway-box ul li { position: relative; padding-left: 25px; margin-bottom: 10px; } .takeaway-box ul li:before { content: "\2713"; /* Unicode character for checkmark */ position: absolute; left: 0; color: #3b0083; font-weight: bold; } Key takeaways$5.8 miljard gerealiseerde verliezenNew whales voor het eerst in de min47k retail holders verdwenen in 3 dagen$98k is het key level om te watchen De cijfers liegen niet De data van CryptoQuant en Glassnode is hard: $5.8 miljard aan gerealiseerde verliezen; dubbel zoveel als vorige dips in deze cyclus Short-term holder NUPL op -25.68; dieper dan eerdere correcties (-17.94 en -19.08) Open interest -30% over 60 dagen; massale deleveraging 47.000 retail holders verdwenen in 3 dagen De tweejaars MVRV Z-score is oversold. Dat betekent: de gemiddelde houder zit dieper in ongerealiseerde verliezen dan tijdens de FTX-crash in 2022. Lees dat nog eens. New whales in de min Voor het eerst deze cyclus staan ‘new whales’ (grote houders met minder dan 155 dagen historie) in netto verlies. Hun unrealized profit ratio: -0.19. Old whales? Die zitten nog comfortabel op +1.11. Dit patroon zagen we eerder: mei 2022, vlak na de all-time high. Toen volgde een langere daling. Maar de context is anders nu. glassnode data Wat is anders dan vorige cycli? Metric Nu Vorige dips deze cyclus Bear markets Realized losses $5.8B $2.3B – $2.9B Vergelijkbaar STH-NUPL -25.68 -17.94 tot -19.08 Dieper Supply in loss <10% <10% >50% Relative unrealized loss 4.4% <2% >50% De verliezen zijn extreem voor een bull cycle, maar niet bear market niveau. Supply in loss blijft onder 10%, terwijl echte bear market bodems boven 50% zitten. Belangrijk: de prijs staat nog steeds boven $80k. Wat we zien is late-cycle kopers die worden uitgeschud, niet een structurele marktbreuk. Retail raakt in paniek, smart money accumuleert Hier wordt het interessant. Retail: 47k holders verdwenen in 3 dagen Twee weken lang 20-25% verliezen gerealiseerd Klassiek capitulatiegedrag Institutioneel: Exchange reserves op 7-maands low Accumulatie zichtbaar on-chain Supply wordt opgedroogd Dit is de setup voor een supply shock. Terwijl retail panics, koopt smart money de dip. Wat betekent dit? De markt is in een reset-fase. Excess leverage is weg. Late-cycle kopers worden uitgeschud. Supply droogt op terwijl retail verkoopt. Is dit de bodem? Niemand weet het. Maar de setup lijkt meer op een lokale bodem dan op het begin van een bear market. Watch: $98k als key level. Daaronder blijft het choppy. Daarboven keert momentum terug. Geduld. Disclaimer: Dit artikel is informatief bedoeld en vormt geen beleggingsadvies. Cryptocurrency is volatiel, doe je eigen onderzoek. Bitcoin (BTC) kopen op Bitvavo Bitvavo - grootste crypto exchange in Nederland Meer dan 340 beschikbare cryptocurrencies Lage transactiekosten Gemakkelijk via iDeal geld storten Professionele traders dashboard Bitvavo review Koop BTC op Bitvavo Let op: cryptocurrency is een zeer volatiele en ongereguleerde investering. Doe je eigen onderzoek.
Het bericht Bitcoin kopers staan twee maanden op verlies, capitulatie of koopkans? is geschreven door Nino van Gerwen en verscheen als eerst op Bitcoinmagazine.nl.
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