ONDO whales withdraw $14 mln – Is the market preparing for a reversal?

Large ONDO withdrawals continue reshaping supply dynamics without triggering impulsive reactions. 

A newly created wallet withdrew 41.87 million ONDO, worth roughly $14.34 million, from Coinbase across several tranches. 

These tokens did not return to centralized venues. This behavior signals intent to hold rather than rotate liquidity. Moreover, the staggered withdrawals suggest planning rather than urgency. 

Similar historical patterns often reflect strategic positioning by long-term participants. However, withdrawals alone do not dictate direction. They simply reduce readily available supply. 

As a result, sellers now require stronger conviction to apply sustained pressure. This shift subtly alters market balance while keeping price stable.

ONDO remains capped inside a descending channel

ONDO price action continues following a multi-month descending channel that has guided trend direction since late 2025. The upper boundary has repeatedly rejected advances, reinforcing active overhead resistance. 

Meanwhile, the lower boundary continues attracting buyers, preventing deeper extensions. Recent upside attempts stalled near $0.38, confirming seller presence. 

However, downside moves struggled to extend below $0.33, signaling defensive demand. This tightening range reflects compression rather than breakdown. 

Additionally, the channel slope has flattened slightly, pointing to slowing downside momentum. 

Still, structure remains dominant. Until price challenges the channel ceiling with conviction, rallies may stay corrective rather than impulsive.

Momentum indicators reflect hesitation rather than exhaustion. The daily RSI continues hovering around 35, remaining below neutral territory. 

However, the indicator has stopped printing lower lows despite repeated tests of support. That behavior often emerges during late corrective phases. 

Short-term bounces recently pushed RSI toward 60, although sellers quickly capped momentum. As a result, RSI oscillates instead of trending.

 Importantly, RSI avoided sustained oversold conditions below 30, signaling restraint among sellers. 

Nevertheless, momentum remains fragile. RSI must reclaim the 45–50 zone to support stronger recovery narratives.

Taker buyers continue absorbing spot sell pressure

Spot taker CVD continues showing buyer dominance, particularly on the 90-day view, where cumulative delta remains positive. Buyers consistently lift offers instead of waiting for pullbacks. 

This behavior contrasts sharply with earlier sell-driven phases. However, price has not expanded alongside this aggression. That divergence suggests absorption rather than momentum chasing. 

Sellers unload into demand, yet follow-through weakens over time. As absorption continues, available supply gradually tightens. 

Therefore, downside moves lose speed even without immediate upside confirmation. Taker behavior signals intent, while structure controls timing.

Short liquidations outweigh longs as downside pressure fades

Liquidation data showed the shorts absorbing significantly more damage than longs during recent volatility. 

At the time of analysis, total liquidations reached roughly $43,000, with short liquidations accounting for about $43.02K, compared to only $405 in long liquidations. 

Binance alone recorded over $42K in short liquidations, far exceeding long-side losses. This imbalance suggests bearish positioning had grown crowded before price stabilized. 

As shorts unwound, forced buybacks helped absorb sell pressure rather than accelerate declines. 

However, liquidation size remained modest overall, indicating leverage exposure stayed light. Therefore, the market cleared bearish excess without triggering a cascade.

Short-side liquidity builds above the current price

The ONDO exchange liquidation map highlighted concentrated short exposure stacked above current levels, particularly between $0.35 and $0.37. 

This clustering creates upside vulnerability. Even a modest push into this zone could pressure shorts to cover rapidly. 

In contrast, downside liquidity appears thinner below $0.33, reducing the likelihood of cascade-driven selloffs. 

This imbalance tilts short-term risk against short sellers rather than buyers. 

However, liquidity remains dormant until the price approaches these levels. Still, the map clearly defines where volatility could accelerate once momentum emerges.

To sum up, ONDO now trades in a phase of preparation rather than weakness. Supply continues tightening quietly, bearish leverage has already unwound, and buyers keep absorbing pressure. 

However, structure still restrains expansion. If participation increases near resistance, upside reactions could accelerate quickly. 

Otherwise, consolidation may persist while positioning matures, delaying resolution but strengthening the market’s eventual directional move.

Final Thoughts

• ONDO shows signs of quiet accumulation as large withdrawals tighten liquid supply without disrupting price stability.
• Weakening downside momentum and repeated absorption of sell pressure suggest the market is transitioning into a positioning phase rather than a distribution one.