The final round of the Federal Reserve Chair election: frequent major reversals, with BlackRock executives emerging as dark horses.

Author: Zen, PANews

After much back and forth, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be officially announced in the next week or so. This dramatic "drama" has taken a dramatic turn in its final stages.

"The Fed must lower interest rates to 3% to get closer to equilibrium," Rick Rieder, chief fixed income investment officer at BlackRock, told CNBC on January 13. "Interest rates must be lowered to 3% before we can even consider the current situation."

Rieder's remarks officially sounded the horn for the dark horse's charge.

His probability of winning doubled from 3% to 6% on prediction markets like Polymarket that day; and after Trump praised him at the Davos Forum, Rieder's chances of winning surged to 60%. As of January 29, Rieder was neck and neck with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, both with around 33% chances .

The reason why this veteran Wall Street investor has unexpectedly risen to become one of the top contenders for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman in 2026 is twofold. On the one hand, Rieder's monetary policy stance coincides with Trump's preferences, favoring rapid and significant interest rate cuts to boost economic growth. On the other hand, the credibility brought by his extensive Wall Street experience makes his nomination more acceptable to the market and the Senate.

Furthermore, Rieder's openness to digital assets has also made him a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency field. He has stated publicly on numerous occasions in recent years that Bitcoin should be included as part of an investment portfolio, providing investors with a "ballast" alongside gold.

Two acquisitions have shaped Rieder's top-tier Wall Street resume.

Everyone has their own talents, and Rieder is a natural-born investor.

In the early 1970s, Rieder, still in elementary school, began studying sports betting. He would scrutinize the detailed statistics of the Oakland Raiders, an NFL team, such as the difference in their performance on artificial and natural grass. Rieder would bet his entire lunch money; if he won, 25 cents would become 50 cents; if he lost, he would starve.

This passion for investing and his almost obsessive fascination with data have permeated Rieder's career. Today, he boasts over 30 years of experience in the financial markets and one of the most extensive investment management resumes in the world.

In 1987, shortly after graduating from Emory University's business school, Rieder joined the renowned investment bank EF Hutton. A few months later, the stock market crash known as "Black Monday" brought the company to the brink of collapse. At the end of the year, the 80-year-old firm was sold off cheaply and merged with Lehman Brothers. Rieder, fortunate enough to remain in his position due to a vacancy, worked at Lehman for nearly 20 years, holding senior positions such as head of global credit operations.

In May 2008, on the eve of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, Rieder chose to leave and start his own business, founding the hedge fund R3 Capital. A year later, Rieder's fate took another major turn in a merger and acquisition: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acquired R3, recruited Rieder, and entrusted him with important responsibilities. From then on, Rieder entered BlackRock's senior management team, gradually leading the company's large fixed-income investment platform.

Today, Rieder serves as BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, managing a portfolio of approximately $2.4 trillion in assets, making him one of the most important investment decision-makers at the world's largest asset management firm. Rieder is also a member of BlackRock's Global Executive Committee and Chairman of the Corporate Investment Council.

It is worth mentioning that, while serving as a corporate executive, he was also invited to serve in public positions such as Vice Chairman of the Borrowing Advisory Committee of the U.S. Treasury Department and a member of the Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets of the Federal Reserve, providing professional advice to the government.

These top-tier credentials give Rieder both market insight and a certain policy perspective, significantly enhancing his chances of becoming the Federal Reserve Chair. Many foreign media outlets, in their reports, like to describe him as having "the qualities of a Federal Reserve Chair."

Rieder's chances of winning surged by about 20 times, making him the biggest favorite as a "dark horse".

As a leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Rieder's stance on monetary policy is the most closely watched issue. Rieder has consistently advocated for a more accommodative policy approach, repeatedly emphasizing that current US interest rates are too high and should be lowered to a "neutral" rate of around 3% as soon as possible to balance economic risks.

In an interview this January, Rieder stated bluntly that the Federal Reserve needed to lower interest rates to 3% to get closer to equilibrium. Analysts point out that Rieder's stance is quite dovish, and if he takes office, the Fed may cut interest rates three times this year to stimulate growth.

According to Rieder, the US economy is experiencing phenomena such as increased productivity, a gradual decline in tariff-induced inflation, and increased pressure on the workforce and low-income consumers. Therefore, an earlier interest rate cut would help alleviate these cyclical and structural problems and safeguard economic growth.

Clearly, Rieder's monetary policy proposals aligned with the Trump administration's urgent desire for interest rate cuts following the election. Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve and its current chairman, Powell, for not cutting rates quickly enough, even publicly pressuring the Fed at the cost of undermining its independence.

As the current frontrunner, Rieder meets Trump's demand for "loosening monetary policy" on interest rates, but unlike the previously popular "two Kevins," Hassett, he lacks a convincing resume, his economic policies have been disappointing, and he is widely regarded as Trump's puppet. Last week, Trump publicly stated his desire for Hassett to remain as director of the White House National Economic Council, essentially confirming Hassett's early exit from the race.

Another frontrunner, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh , while also expressing support for interest rate cuts, is an inflation hawk and unlikely to pursue the large, rapid rate cuts Trump desires. Furthermore, Warsh has been vocal in his criticism of the Federal Reserve system during his campaign, calling for change and a strong overhaul, but specific reform details remain unclear. Given Warsh's background, his outspoken attitude may raise concerns in Trump that he is too aggressive and lacks cooperation.

Compared to Warsh and Hassett, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is considered an "insider candidate," possessing considerable influence within the Fed's decision-making body and supporting a more conservative central bank role. However, Waller did not garner much favor from Trump in this "selection." It's worth noting, however, that Waller's opposition to the Fed's late January decision, supporting a 25-basis-point rate cut, doubled his chances of winning in the prediction market to approximately 15%.

In an interview at the Davos Forum, Trump praised Rieder, saying he performed exceptionally well in the interview. Trump also stated that, in his view, there "maybe only one real candidate left." This caused Rieder's chances of being elected to surge from less than 3% to 60% on January 24, surpassing the previously leading "two Kevins."

The first Bitcoin-friendly Federal Reserve Chair may take office.

Unlike most central bank officials, Rieder has maintained a relatively friendly and open attitude towards crypto assets such as Bitcoin. As the head of investment at one of the world's largest asset management companies, he has repeatedly expressed his recognition of the potential of digital assets.

Back in November 2020, Rieder boldly asserted in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could succeed gold as the new reserve asset of the 21st century, arguing that "it is much more convenient as a carrier of value than physical assets such as gold bars."

In the following years, Rieder's actions and views remained consistent. In early 2021, he revealed that BlackRock had "begun to dabble in Bitcoin" investments, and in 2023, BlackRock took the lead in submitting an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a Bitcoin spot ETF, prompting other financial giants to follow suit. Rieder himself repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin should be part of a long-term investment portfolio.

In a recent interview, Rieder advised investors to hold Bitcoin alongside gold to hedge against inflation and enhance portfolio stability. Even when Bitcoin's price reached a high of $112,000 in September 2025, Rieder maintained that "it will continue to rise," expressing strong optimism about the future performance of this digital asset.

If such a market-oriented figure who embraces cryptocurrencies were to become the Federal Reserve Chairman, it would be an unprecedented situation, meaning that Bitcoin would gain unprecedented influence at the highest levels of the Federal Reserve.

Of course, the Federal Reserve Chairman is not the official who directly regulates the crypto industry. Specific regulatory rules are mainly formulated by agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Within the Federal Reserve, the Vice Chairman responsible for financial supervision usually leads discussions on digital asset-related issues. Therefore, Rieder's stance on crypto may not immediately translate into a major policy change.

However, the personal views of the Federal Reserve Chair have a significant guiding role in the market and regulatory climate, influencing how regulators examine financial innovation and its systemic impact. For the crypto industry, a Federal Reserve Chair who understands the value of Bitcoin and comes from the intersection of traditional Wall Street finance and digital assets is undoubtedly a major motivating signal.