Ethereum Price Prediction: Open Interest Rebounds, $4K Setup

Ethereum futures open interest has returned to pre crash levels, even as ETH still trades about 32% below early October. At the same time, a separate chart setup flagged by a trader on X points to a possible repeat path that targets the $4,000 area if momentum keeps improving.

Ethereum Open Interest Recovers as Price Lags

Ethereum open interest has climbed back to levels seen before the Oct. 10 selloff, even as Ether’s price remains far below its earlier highs, according to futures data shared by market analyst Ted Pillows.

Ethereum open interest on major futures venues has fully rebounded from the sharp October crash, signaling that leveraged positions have returned to the market. Data from Binance futures shows open interest rising steadily through November, December, and January, reaching roughly the same range seen before the mid-October liquidation event.

Ethereum Open Interest vs ETH Price. Source: Binance Futures

At the same time, Ether’s spot price has not followed that recovery. ETH continues to trade about 32% below its level from early October, reflecting weaker price momentum despite the buildup of derivatives exposure. The divergence highlights a market where traders have re-entered with leverage while underlying price action remains compressed.

Such gaps between open interest and price often emerge when speculative positioning grows faster than demand in the spot market. In this case, futures participation has increased even though ETH has struggled to reclaim key resistance zones near the $3,200 to $3,500 range. As a result, the market shows higher risk concentration without a matching price recovery, a dynamic frequently seen during periods of elevated speculative activity in crypto derivatives.

Trader Flags “Deja Vu” Setup as Ether Eyes $4,000

Ethereum trader Heisenberg, who posts on X as @Mr_Derivatives, said Ether is giving bulls a familiar setup as chart signals begin to improve even after a deep pullback.

Heisenberg pointed to a daily ETHUSD chart that marked a previous 47% decline followed by a multi week basing phase, then a rebound of about 33%. The chart also highlighted a later move that rose about 47% and pushed price back toward the $4,000 area, which he described as a psychological level.

ETHUSD Daily Price and RSI Chart. Source: StockCharts

He said the current market shows a similar look. The chart drew another 47% drop into late 2025, followed by a sideways range that the post labeled as a basing period. It also noted a strengthening RSI trend line, suggesting momentum has improved compared with prior lows.

Heisenberg said the pattern could send ETH back toward $4,000, while also noting the setup may fail. Ether last traded near $2,956 on the chart timestamp, with RSI near the mid 40s, as price held inside a recent range after the late 2025 decline.