OSL Trading Hours: BTC falls below $97,000 after a surge, analysts warn of a possible sharp correction

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

Cryptocurrency ETFs attracted $585 million this month, mainly from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, despite a profit-taking decline in December. Meanwhile, Calamos is planning to launch an innovative Bitcoin ETF that provides full loss protection while limiting potential gains through an annual reset mechanism. Bitcoin has performed well in 2024, becoming the world's seventh largest asset and breaking through $102,000 for the first time in 2025. However, trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, and well-known analyst Peter Brandt has warned of a 50% correction, bringing uncertainty to the market.

On the regulatory front, Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, reached a $5 million settlement with the CFTC to resolve allegations of misleading in the launch of the first U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures contract. The market's positive news continues, with the Coinbase Premium Index turning bullish and MicroStrategy increasing its holdings by 1,070 BTC. The cryptocurrency market rose on Monday, driven by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet's increase in holdings. However, Bitcoin encountered resistance at the $108,000 mark and once fell below the psychological $100,000 mark. Despite this, continued strengthening of institutional support and the growth momentum of the global cryptocurrency market continue to provide momentum for Bitcoin to move towards higher goals.

2. Key data (as of 09:20 HKT on January 8)

• S&P 500: 5,909.03 (+0.47% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,489.68 (+0.93% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.680% (+10.40 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 108.66 (+0.16% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $96,957 (+3.79% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $60.69 billion

• Ethereum: $3,394.61 (+1.49% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $33.32 billion

3. ETF flows (January 7 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$457.43 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$19.15 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

FOMC meeting minutes (January 9, 03:00 am)

Non-farm payrolls data (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

5. Hot News

ZKsync Ignite has launched the first season of the incentive program Ignite, which will distribute 100 million ZK

Illuvium partners with Virtuals to bring autonomous AI NPCs to its games

In 2024, ETFs and listed companies bought a total of 859,454 BTC, absorbing 4.3% of the circulating supply in one year

Sol Strategies receives $25 million CAD credit line to invest in Solana ecosystem

Arbitrum awards largest developer grant ever to South Korean giant Lotte to advance Caliverse blockchain integration

MicroStrategy to buy over $22 billion in Bitcoin by 2024

Usual will turn on token fees before February 1

Jambo will launch J tokens on Solana this month with a total supply of 1 billion

Binance will launch COOKIE, ALCH and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage

Backpack Exchange acquires FTX EU for $32.7 million, NFT project Mad Lads rises 24% in a short period of time

Binance Alpha adds HAT, AIXCB, and NEUR

NVIDIA announces NVIDIA Cosmos, the world’s most powerful model

Solana Mobile’s second phone, Solana Seeker, is expected to be launched in mid-2025

Babylon will launch the second phase of the test network on January 8

Arthur Hayes: Crypto market may peak in mid-March, then see severe correction

Anti-crypto Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr Resigns

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