ASTER Technical Analysis Feb 3

Dominant downtrend in ASTER continues with LH/LL structure; could breaking $0.61 resistance signal structural change? Short-term bearish momentum carries risk of testing lower supports.

Market Structure Overview

ASTER’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price is exhibiting lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL), maintaining its bearish character. Current price at $0.59 level, positioned below EMA20 ($0.63) despite 24-hour 7.05% rise. This confirms the short-term bearish structure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1D shows 1 support/3 resistance, 3D 1 support/2 resistance, 1W 2 support/3 resistance distribution, which strengthens the overall bearish bias. Supertrend gives bearish signal and resistance is positioned at $0.74. RSI at 42.34 in neutral-bearish zone, MACD with negative histogram indicates downward momentum. Market structure analysis requires monitoring the preservation of LH/LL pattern for trend continuation, and breaking of BOS (Break of Structure) levels for change.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure must form. Although there was a rebound from $0.55 low to $0.60 recently, this move did not surpass previous swing lows ($0.5070) and did not form a new higher low. Remaining below EMA20 shows weak bullish momentum. For a potential HH/HL start, price needs to break $0.6091 swing high and reach $0.6512, then form a new higher low. Currently, RSI at 42 shows limited buying power, no bullish crossover on MACD. Follow these levels closely in ASTER Spot Analysis.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend strongly confirmed with LH/LL. Latest swing high $0.6091 is lower than previous highs, swing low $0.5070 functions as LL. Price was rejected before approaching $0.74 Supertrend resistance. In MTF, weekly 3 resistance/2 support balance increases bearish pressure. If $0.5070 breaks, new LL forms and bearish structure accelerates. MACD negative histogram and declining RSI make trend continuation likely. Consider these risks in leveraged positions in ASTER Futures Analysis.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend change. For bullish BOS, closing break of $0.6091 (score:84/100) swing high is required; this breaks LH pattern and signals shift to HL. Then $0.6512 (62/100) should be tested to confirm HH/HL. Bearish BOS occurs with break of $0.5070 (73/100) swing low; this confirms LL and opens $0.2622 target (22/100 score). These levels are strong in MTF: near-term resistances dominant on 1D. For CHoCH (Change of Character), monitor reach to $0.9567 (53/100) in bullish scenario, drop to $0.2622 in bearish. Breakouts should be supported by volume, watch for fakeouts.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Most critical swing high $0.6091 (84/100), latest rejection point and BOS level. $0.6512 (62/100) intermediate resistance, $0.9567 (62/100) long-term target/resistance. These highs form LH pattern; their breaks signal trend reversal. Price currently at $0.59 near $0.6091, high test risk.

Recent Swing Lows

Swing low $0.5070 (73/100) main support, latest bottom and bearish BOS level. If broken, momentum increases. Lower MTF supports scattered on 1W, preserving overall structure. If this low holds, short-term bounce possible, but bearish bias continues below EMA20.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $78,320, Supertrend bearish despite 0.95% daily rise. Main supports $78,674/$74,604/$63,235, resistances $79,391/$83,548/$87,774. BTC dominance high and bearish signals risky for alts; altcoins like ASTER deepen LH/LL on BTC drop. If BTC breaks $78,674, ASTER $0.5070 test accelerates. Conversely, if BTC goes bullish above $79,391, ASTER $0.6091 BOS may trigger. Correlation high, prioritize BTC structure.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook bearish: LH/LL dominant, high downside potential with MTF resistance superiority. BOS above $0.6091 brings bullish CHoCH, below $0.5070 confirms bearish. Short-term, monitor $0.59-$0.60 range, volume and EMA20 critical. Long-term, $0.9567 bullish, $0.2622 bearish targets. Market structure dynamic; track swing levels and BTC correlation. Educational note: HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL downtrend; changes with BOS.