In ONDO, the 24-hour volume remains low at 54.65 million dollars compared to recent averages, while the slight price rise (%0.29) indicates weak participation; this situation combined with oversold RSI (30.48) may give hidden accumulation signals.
Volume Profile and Market Participation
ONDO’s current volume profile shows that market participation is quite low. The 24-hour trading volume is at the 54.65 million dollar level, which is about 40% below the recent 7-day average volume. This low volume indicates that the price movement within the downtrend (around $0.28) is supported by weak selling pressure. While the price trades below EMA20 ($0.33), the volume profile concentrates near the Value Area High (VAH) resistance at $0.2896, but Low Volume Nodes (LVN) are prominent at the $0.2558 support level. Market participation, especially from retail investors, is limited; large block trades have decreased. For a healthy trend, volume is expected to increase by at least 50%, and the current situation tells a story of indecisive consolidation. Supertrend gives a bearish signal, but the lack of volume confirmation suggests the rally may be delayed.
Accumulation or Distribution?
Accumulation Signals
Oversold RSI (30.48) and low-volume declines carry traces of accumulation in ONDO. When the price was tested in the $0.2765-$0.2558 support band, there were no volume spikes; this reflects a passive accumulation pattern rather than aggressive selling. In MTF volume levels (1D/3D/1W), 5 out of 9 strong levels are support-focused (2S 1D, 1S 3D, 2S 1W), which may indicate institutions accumulating at low levels. Volume delta shows a positive trend: volume on up days is 20% higher than on down days. This draws a picture similar to the final stages of the Wyckoff accumulation phase, especially with a volume POC formed at $0.2558 (80/100 score).
Distribution Risks
Distribution risk comes from MACD negative histogram and bearish Supertrend with volume divergence. Approaching the $0.36 resistance could trigger distribution with volume increase, as the 3R level dominates on the 1W timeframe. The +0.29% rise in the last 24 hours is low-volume; a 100% volume increase is critical for cap distribution. If $0.2896 (69/100) is not broken, it could lead to a bearish target of $0.1136 (22 score), but the current low volume weakens this scenario.
Price-Volume Alignment
Price movement is not very aligned with volume: while the downtrend continues, the recent 0.29% recovery is not confirmed by volume remaining below average – this is bearish divergence. For a healthy decline, volume on down days should be higher than on up days, but here it’s the opposite: relative volume increase (+15%) on up ticks. Staying below EMA20 is bearish, but RSI divergence (price makes new lows, RSI holds) awaits volume confirmation. Volume test at $0.2896 resistance is critical; in a breakout, bullish target $0.4559 (30 score) is possible, but requires 75% volume increase. Overall, volume is contradicting price and emphasizing weak momentum.
Big Player Activity
Big player activity is limited to low block volumes; according to on-chain data, whale accumulation has increased around $0.27, but it’s not clear in the spot market. High volume clusters in the volume profile at $0.2765 (61/100) indicate institutions defending. Futures open interest is low, funding rate neutral – speculative pressure is low. Distribution awaits BTC above $79k, while the current pattern carries institutional buying signals. We never claim definitive positions, but volume footprints show passive-aggressive buying. Check details at ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $78,139 (+0.68%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish and rising dominance risky for altcoins. ONDO has 0.85% correlation to BTC; if BTC breaks $77,615 support, ONDO will be dragged to $0.2558. BTC resistances at $79,295-$81,520 should be monitored – a breakout could trigger ONDO rally, with volume increasing parallel to BTC. In BTC bearish scenario (below $74k), ONDO bear target $0.1136 activates.
Volume-Based Outlook
Volume-based outlook is neutral-bullish leaning: low participation weakens the downtrend, hold at $0.2558 is essential for accumulation. If volume increases 50%, target $0.4559; if it falls, $0.1136 risk exists. Watch: volume spikes and BTC correlation. Be patient, do not move without volume confirming price.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ondo-technical-analysis-february-3-2026-volume-and-accumulation
