ATOM’s RSI has declined to the 36.10 level, approaching the oversold region, but MACD’s negative histogram and pressure above EMA20 indicate that momentum is still dominated by bearish pressure. The limited increase in volume signals that trend strength remains weak.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
ATOM is currently priced at 1.99 dollars and has shown a 2.68% rise in the last 24 hours, yet the overall trend structure continues to remain under downward pressure. The daily range is squeezed between 1.94-2.02 dollars, and volume is at moderate levels of 27.09 million dollars. From a momentum perspective, the price is positioned below EMA20 (2.19 dollars), giving a short-term bearish signal. The Supertrend indicator is also producing a bearish signal and marking 2.39 dollars as resistance. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 13 strong levels have been identified: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This structure supports downward momentum dominance while increasing the risk of short-term recovery attempts being limited at resistances. Volume confirmation is weak; since volume increases remained limited in bullish sessions, the weakness in momentum is eroding trend strength.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 36.10, below the neutral zone and approaching the oversold (below 30) threshold. This situation indicates that short-term momentum is exhausted and points to potential rebound buying. However, regular or hidden divergence analysis shows that while the price is making new lows, RSI is not forming higher lows; thus, there is no clear bullish divergence. On the daily chart, RSI has slightly curved up from recent lows, but this move remains weak as it is not confirmed by volume. Weekly RSI is trying to stabilize above the 40s, but the overall momentum decline is preventing divergence formation. In this context, while RSI is not giving a sell signal, the current levels serve as a warning for the continuation of the bearish trend; a drop below 30 could activate bottom hunters due to extreme momentum weakness.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 36.10 is advancing toward the oversold region (below 30), indicating that the bearish speed of the momentum oscillator is slowing. It had previously dipped below 50 in prior sessions, confirming selling pressure, but the current position is setting the stage for rebound buys. Nevertheless, being far from overbought regions above 70 emphasizes that upward momentum has not yet strengthened. Volume increase is required for RSI to return to the 50 level; otherwise, a breakdown below 30 could accelerate downward momentum.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
The MACD indicator is giving a bearish signal; the signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This structure confirms the downward acceleration in momentum. The recent partial narrowing of histogram bars suggests that bearish momentum may have peaked and could signal a potential slowdown, but the signal line crossover has not yet occurred. On the daily chart, the MACD line is deepening below the zero line, while on the weekly chart, the absence of similar negative divergence preserves trend strength. The negative histogram supported by volume reinforces selling dominance; a price break above the 2.06 dollar resistance is needed for a positive crossover. Overall, MACD emphasizes bearish pressure in momentum and has the potential to limit short-term recoveries.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
On the short-term EMA ribbon, the price is squeezed below EMA20 (2.19 dollars), indicating weak momentum. The narrowing ribbon between EMA10 and EMA20 signals declining trend strength, while the price dipping below these bands produces a sell signal. The 2.68% rise in the last 24 hours was limited without touching the EMAs, not disrupting the bearish structure.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 levels are forming resistance in the 2.15-2.20 band, while long-term EMA200 is creating a strong ceiling around 2.50. The price remaining below these EMAs confirms the overall downward trend strength. In ribbon dynamics, dominance of the lower bands (below EMA50) makes momentum weakness measurable; volume confirmation is essential for an upward breakout.
Bitcoin Correlation
ATOM shows high correlation with Bitcoin, and BTC’s downtrend at the 78,203 dollar level is creating pressure on altcoins. While BTC Supertrend gives a bearish signal, main supports are at 77,503 and 74,604 dollars; resistances at 79,364 and 82,602 dollars. If BTC fails to hold these supports, ATOM’s risk of testing the 1.98 dollar support increases. If BTC dominance rises, ATOM momentum could weaken further; key BTC levels to watch are breakdown below 77,500 and recovery above 79,500. Check the links for detailed ATOM Spot Analysis and ATOM Futures Analysis.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
In synthesis, RSI’s oversold approach at 36.10 and MACD’s negative histogram dominate bearish momentum; the EMA ribbon confirms weak trend strength. Critical supports are 1.9818 (high score) and 1.8100; a breakdown could lead to bearish targets (around 1.20). Above, monitor resistances at 2.1581 and 2.0610, with BTC movements being decisive. Insufficient volume keeps momentum confluence in favor of bears; short-term rebound expects RSI rise to 50 and MACD narrowing. With MTF confluence, downside risk prevails; bullish scenario remains limited to BTC recovery. These dynamics require careful positioning for momentum traders.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/atom-technical-analysis-february-3-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
