BTC Downtrend Persists as Open Interest Continues to Reset

• BTC trades below key EMAs as weak rebounds reinforce bearish short-term market control
• Lower highs and lows persist after the $86K–$89K breakdown, confirming bearish structure
• Falling open interest and negative spot flows show deleveraging, not strong dip demand

Bitcoin continues to trade under visible pressure, as short-term market structure reflects sustained bearish control. On the 4-hour chart, BTC remains below its key exponential moving averages, reinforcing downside momentum. 

Consequently, recent rebounds have lacked strength and failed to attract follow-through buying. Market participants now assess whether the current stabilization marks a pause or another leg lower.

Bearish Structure Defines Short-Term Trend

Price action over recent sessions confirms a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This structure followed a decisive breakdown from the $86,000 to $89,000 consolidation range. 

Significantly, that zone had supported price for several weeks before sellers regained control. A sharp decline then dragged BTC toward the $74,500 area, establishing a new local low.

However, buyers attempted a modest rebound after that drop. The recovery stalled quickly, suggesting limited conviction. Additionally, technical indicators continue to favor sellers. 

Parabolic SAR signals remain positioned above price, indicating persistent downside pressure. Hence, traders continue to treat upward moves as corrective rather than trend-changing.

Bitcoin now faces multiple overhead barriers that complicate any sustained rebound. The $80,100 to $80,300 zone represents the first technical hurdle. A reclaim could help stabilize short-term sentiment. However, stronger resistance emerges near $83,500, which marked a previous breakdown level.

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Moreover, the $86,280 region carries greater importance. This midpoint retracement aligns with prior structural support. A failure there would likely reinforce bearish continuation. 

Above that, the $89,000 to $89,100 area combines a key retracement level with clustered moving averages. Consequently, sellers may defend that zone aggressively. Only a move beyond $92,900 would materially alter the broader bias.

Derivatives and Spot Data Signal Caution

Bitcoin open interest has contracted sharply following the recent price decline. Data shows a drop from late-2025 highs above $70 billion toward the $52 to $55 billion range. Significantly, this reduction reflects leverage unwinding rather than aggressive short positioning. As a result, market structure now appears cleaner and less crowded.

Spot flow data further reinforces cautious sentiment. Persistent negative netflows point to ongoing distribution during volatility. Additionally, buying interest appears sporadic and reactive. Consequently, rallies continue to attract selling pressure rather than sustained accumulation.

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Technical Outlook for Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin price levels remain clearly defined as volatility compresses after the recent sell-off. 

Upside levels include $80,300 as the first hurdle, followed by $83,500 and the critical $86,280 zone. A clean breakout above $86,000 could open room for a broader recovery toward $89,000 and potentially $92,900. 

On the downside, $78,000 acts as immediate support. Below that, the $75,400–$74,600 demand zone remains crucial. A breakdown under $74,500 would expose Bitcoin to deeper downside risk.

The technical structure shows BTC trading below major moving averages, signaling a corrective phase. Price action reflects consolidation after leverage unwinding, which may set the stage for volatility expansion. 

Will Bitcoin Go Up? 

Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends on whether buyers can defend $78,000 and reclaim $83,500. Strong inflows and rising open interest would support a relief rally. 

However, failure to hold support keeps downside risks elevated. For now, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection zone.

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