QNT Technical Analysis Feb 4

[ENGLISH: QNT is maintaining the LH/LL down structure and the $63.48 support test is critical. Can BOS above $68.69 signal a trend change?]

Market Structure Overview

QNT’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. The price has moved away from the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) bullish structure and is maintaining the lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) bearish formation. Current price at $65.43 level, 24-hour change -2.08% negative. This structure is supported by a total of 12 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/4 resistances on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, 4 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Trading below EMA20 ($72.92) reinforces the short-term bearish bias. Supertrend signal is bearish and $82.60 resistance is strong. Although RSI at 37.22 is approaching oversold, MACD with negative histogram confirms momentum decline. The market shows effort to hold at swing lows, but the overall structure is dominated by LH/LL.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure is required: Each swing high must exceed the previous high; each swing low must exceed the previous low. This is not observed in QNT recently. A potential bullish signal could come from a breakout (BOS) above the $68.6887 swing high. If this level breaks, it opens the path to $73.0450 and $80.7243 resistances. Bullish continuation target $101.7667 (score:28), but low probability. Slight recovery in RSI offers hope for short-term HL formation, but overall MTF structure does not support it. Closing above EMA20 would be the first bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) signal.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: Recent swing highs progressively lower ($80.7243 → $73.0450 → $68.6887), swing lows declining similarly. $63.4800 swing low (score:83/100) is critical support; if broken, LH/LL continues and descends to $35.7380 bearish target (score:20). MACD bearish and Supertrend resistance at $82.60 suppresses buyers. 24h range $63.62-$68.40 shows consolidation with low volatility, but bearish bias dominates.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) confirms trend change. For bearish BOS, closing below $63.4800 swing low is required: This forms a new LL and confirms the downtrend. Conversely, bullish BOS above $68.6887 swing high: If this level (score:69/100) breaks, LH is invalidated and signals transition to HL. For stronger confirmation, breach of $73.0450 (score:65/100) is expected. $80.7243 (score:67/100) is major resistance; above it brings CHoCH. These levels should be monitored as market structure invalidation points. Price at $65.43 squeezed between these levels; breakout direction will determine the trend.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs form LH pattern: $68.6887 (near resistance, score:69), $73.0450, and $80.7243 (major). These levels test buyer strength. Rejection at $68.6887 strengthens bearish continuation; breakout brings bullish momentum. Importance of swing highs lies in acting as resistance and thresholds for BOS.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing low $63.4800 (score:83/100) is strong support. This level holds LLs and potential bounce source. If broken, downtrend accelerates with new LL. Previous lows also form support cluster; holding provides short-term relief but does not disrupt overall LH/LL structure. Swing lows serve as stop-loss points for risk management.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $74,534.77 (-3.96%) in downtrend; key supports $75,211/$72,946/$61,211, resistances $77,864/$82,178/$89,425. BTC Supertrend bearish, caution signal for altcoins. QNT highly correlated with BTC; if BTC drops below $75,211, QNT $63.48 test accelerates. BTC recovery above $77,864 creates $68.69 BOS opportunity for QNT. BTC dominance increase pressures alts like QNT; BTC levels to watch will impact structure. Details for QNT Spot Analysis and QNT Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominant, $63.4800 support and $68.6887 resistance as pivot. BOS levels should be monitored; below $63.48 new LL, above $68.69 HL start. Resistance weight in MTF challenges buyers. Although RSI near 37 carries oversold bounce potential, MACD and EMA structure supports downside. CHoCH required for trend reversal: Consecutive HLs and major BOS. Short-term consolidation, long-term bearish targets point to $35.74. Use swing levels to trade without disrupting structure. Market is dynamic; follow updates.