Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle on the Chopping Block: Has the Halving Era Finally Ended?

In crypto, theories have a way of spinning up like dust devils, and lately, one in particular has been making the rounds — that bitcoin’s notorious four-year cycle may have run its course. Supporters of the “cycle is dead” camp say the pattern is breaking apart, citing shifts like rising institutional participation, the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), moves toward clearer regulations, and steady accumulation by governments and major corporations.

End of an Era? Crypto Proponents Declare Bitcoin’s Famous Cycle ‘Dead’

Since Bitcoin’s debut, its native token has followed a familiar four-year rhythm driven by the halving — the event that cuts mining rewards in half every four years. This shift has traditionally set off a chain reaction: a bull run, a steep fall into bear market territory, and then a gradual rebound before the next BTC halving kicks things off again. In the past, this cycle has pushed bitcoin’s price higher after each halving before tumbling sharply, but this time, many believe the pattern may not repeat.

Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC earlier this week that he believes the cycle has come to an end. “It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” Hougan detailed. The debate has also spilled onto social platforms like Reddit and X. On X, the account Simplifying Stocks, CPA declared, “Bitcoin’s 4 year cycle is dead. Why?”

The X account then followed up with its own answer:

A growing chorus of influencers, analysts, and media voices contend that the cycle is outdated, pointing to bitcoin’s evolution into a mainstream institutional asset. While some disagreement remains, many back the idea with data and reasoned arguments. Some predict the “prolonged bear market” is still a long way off, and one user confidently claims, “we will go all the way far into Q2/Q4 2026, depending on factors such as global liquidity.”

On the other hand, the X account Crypto Dad pushes back against the popular belief that bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over because of institutional adoption.

In a detailed post, Crypto Dad contends the cycle isn’t solely the product of halving events, as many assume, but is instead deeply connected to the global liquidity cycle — a pattern that runs on a roughly four- to five-year cadence and was reset by the 2008 financial crisis. According to the post, bitcoin’s past all-time highs have aligned with peaks in global liquidity, not just halvings, pointing to “QE1–QE3, ZIRP” fueling the 2009–2013 bull run, QE spillover for 2014–2017, and pandemic QE for 2018–2021.

The post wraps with:

On July 23, crypto influencer Marty Party told his 226,000 followers on X, “Bitcoin Basics 2025—The 4 year cycle is long gone. The 2020 bear market was created by the previous government to try [to] stop bitcoin. It failed. Bitcoin is absorbing fiat to at least 2050. The new administration is on board. The system is moving to hard money. This is a good thing. It will solve all our problems.”

The ongoing dispute reflects more than a clash of data points—it highlights a shift in how market participants define bitcoin’s future. With narratives now shaped as much by macroeconomic policy as by blockchain mechanics, the community faces a test: adapt to evolving signals or cling to a model born in the asset’s earliest, less institutionalized years.

As debates intensify, the market itself will likely render the final verdict. Whether driven by liquidity tides, halving sparks, or new layers of adoption, bitcoin’s price action in the coming years will likely speak louder than any theory. Until then, traders and analysts remain in a holding pattern, watching for confirmation that one of crypto’s most enduring patterns has truly reached its end.