Will Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin? Experts Say Not Yet

While most crypto investors stay focused on halving cycles, ETF demand, and global liquidity trends, one long-term issue is quietly developing in the background: quantum computing. 

On Feb 4, market researcher BATMAN highlighted this overlooked threat, explaining why it deserves awareness, even if it is not an immediate danger.

The security of Bitcoin is based on cryptography. This ensures that the wallets are safe and that the transactions are valid. Two of the major systems that support this are SHA-256 and ECDSA. SHA-256 is used to generate wallet addresses, while ECDSA ensures that only the owner can sign for the spending of the money.

Source: X

Both could be threatened by quantum computers. Grover’s algorithm could reduce the effort required to break SHA-256 by brute force, but Shor’s algorithm targets ECDSA directly.

If signature protection could be broken, then attackers could sign their own transactions and steal money from vulnerable addresses. This is why quantum computing is often spoken of as a threat in the future rather than a news headline in the short term.

Also Read: Bitcoin (BTC) Slips Below 100-Week SMA, Bearish Momentum Builds

Why the Threat Is Not Immediate

Although it sounds frightening, the current state is much less dramatic. To break the encryption of Bitcoin, quantum computers with millions of stable logical qubits are needed.

These computers would also have to be fault-tolerant, which means they would have to be able to perform complex calculations without making too many mistakes.

But what’s happening in the current year is that the best effort from IBM, Google, and other large labs involves thousands of noisy qubits. That’s a big science achievement, but it’s nowhere near sufficient to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography.

Source: X

The majority of people in the quantum community believe that the breaking capability will emerge in the early to mid-2030s, rather than in the next year or two.

How Bitcoin May Adapt Over Time

The Bitcoin network has experienced large issues in the past, such as forks, bans by regulators, and long bear markets. If the risk of quantum computing increases, it may force Bitcoin to develop once again.

Core developers and researchers have discussed quantum-proof cryptography. In the future, upgrades may occur via soft forks, allowing Bitcoin to adopt secure signature schemes if necessary.

Not all coins are equally vulnerable today. Public keys are only fully visible when coins are spent. Money in new addresses that have not been spent yet is less vulnerable to a quantum attack today.

For users, the solution is simple wallet hygiene. Don’t reuse old addresses. Use new formats such as SegWit or Taproot, which reduce on-chain visibility. And when quantum-secure standards emerge, be prepared to move your money.

Source: X

Also Read: Record $1M Lightning Transfer Sparks Hope for Institutional Bitcoin Adoption