SOL Downtrend Deepens Despite Slowing Sell Pressure

• SOL stays in a clear short-term downtrend with sellers controlling price action.
• Key support at $78.50–$76 may break, pushing SOL toward $67.50 next.
• Derivatives and spot flows show caution, with outflows easing but conviction weak.

Solana’s recent price action shows a market still under pressure, despite brief recovery attempts. On the 4-hour chart, SOL continues to trade within a well-defined short-term downtrend. Price behavior reflects persistent selling interest, with each rebound failing to shift momentum. 

Consequently, traders remain focused on whether key support levels can hold amid weakening confidence. Market participants now assess technical structure, leverage trends, and capital flows for clearer direction.

Downtrend Structure Keeps Sellers in Control

Solana’s four-hour chart shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This structure confirms that sellers still dominate short-term price action. 

Additionally, price trades below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 exponential moving averages. These averages align bearishly, reinforcing downside pressure. The Supertrend indicator also remains negative, signaling continuation rather than reversal.

Moreover, the loss of important Fibonacci retracement levels accelerated selling momentum. The break below the 0.382 and 0.236 retracements removed key recovery zones. Hence, recent rebounds failed to attract sustained buying interest. As long as price remains capped below key resistance, upside attempts appear corrective.

Immediate support sits between $78.50 and $76.00, where buyers currently defend losses. However, a decisive move below this zone could shift focus lower. 

Consequently, the $67.50 area emerges as the next major downside target. This level aligns with the broader Fibonacci base and prior structural support.

On the upside, Solana faces multiple resistance layers that limit recovery strength. The $86.80 to $89.50 range acts as the first barrier. This zone overlaps short-term moving averages and a prior retracement level. 

Additionally, stronger resistance appears between $98.60 and $101.40. This region marks a former breakdown area and a key Fibonacci level.

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Beyond that, the $108.20 to $117.70 zone represents heavy overhead supply. Several moving averages converge there, increasing rejection risk. Hence, analysts note that any move into this range requires strong follow-through buying. Without that, rallies may attract renewed selling pressure.

Derivatives and Flow Data Reflect Caution

Besides price action, derivatives data adds important context. Solana’s open interest previously expanded aggressively during rallies. Peaks above $15 billion coincided with local price highs. However, sharp deleveraging followed each surge, triggering liquidations. Into early 2026, open interest dropped near $5.27 billion as price fell toward $78.

Significantly, this contraction suggests forced position unwinds rather than new bearish bets. Additionally, spot flow data shows persistent net outflows. Capital continues to exit during declines, despite brief accumulation attempts. Recent outflows appear smaller, hinting at selling fatigue. However, inflows remain limited, keeping broader conviction subdued.

Technical Outlook for Solana (SOL) Price

Key levels remain well-defined as Solana trades within a sustained short-term downtrend. 

Upside levels to watch include $86.80, $89.50, and $98.60 as immediate hurdles. A clean breakout above this zone could open a recovery path toward $101.40 and $108.20. However, sellers continue to defend these levels aggressively.

On the downside, $78.50 to $76.00 remains the primary support zone. This area currently acts as a short-term demand pocket. Failure to hold $76 would expose SOL to the next major downside level near $67.50, which aligns with the broader Fibonacci base.

The resistance ceiling sits between $98 and $101, where prior breakdowns and moving averages converge. This level remains the key area to flip for any medium-term bullish shift. Technically, SOL continues to trade below all major EMAs, while the Supertrend stays bearish. This structure suggests price remains in a corrective phase rather than a reversal setup.

The broader technical picture points to compression within a bearish structure. Any decisive move, either reclaiming $108 or losing $76, could trigger volatility expansion. 

Will Solana Go Up? 

Solana’s near-term price direction hinges on whether buyers can defend the $76 zone long enough to challenge overhead resistance. Stronger inflows and stabilizing derivatives data would support a bounce toward $98 and higher. 

However, failure to hold current support risks accelerating losses toward $67.50. For now, SOL remains at a critical inflection point, where confirmation, not anticipation, will define the next move.