Polls shifting against GOP in surprising red state: 'Democrats have a real shot'

Texas appears to be in play for Democrats, as it seems to be every few years before Republicans hold on to win another election, but CNN's Harry Enten said they may have real reason for optimism this time.

The GOP-controlled state legislature redrew the Texas congressional maps with an eye on improving their chances of picking up new House seats, but Enten told "CNN News Central" those efforts may have backfired.

"You know, one of the things about Texas is it's kind of the boy who cried wolf syndrome going on there," Enten said. "Every two to four years we say, hey, Texas could be in play for the Democrats, and then every two to four years you find out, no, it's still red. But this time might be a little bit different, because I want you to take a look at Republican margins in Texas. You know, in 2024, Donald Trump won the state of Texas rather easily by 14 points. But look at the 2026 generic congressional ballot: Republicans still lead, but only by two, only by two. We're talking about a 12-point shift here."

"I was looking back at the numbers, [and] this looks a lot more like 2018, where you might recall that Beto O'Rourke came very, very close to winning that Senate race against Ted Cruz," he added. "So at this point, yes, Republicans still favored, but but maybe it might not turn out so well for team red."

Latino voters have shifted back toward Democrats in the first year of President Donald Trump's second term after leaning further right than ever before in 2024, Enten said.

"One of the reasons to wonder why Texas may, in fact, be becoming a little bit more purple, a little bit more purple, and a little bit less red is because, what are we seeing nationally?" he said. "We're seeing nationally a real movement among Latino voters. So this is among Latino voters nationally, in November of 2024, Kamala Harris won Latino voters by just four points. When you can put a margin on one hand, you know, it's small, and this was historically small. Donald Trump put up a historically strong performance for Republican candidate. But now look, among Latino voters nationally, look at this. This margin has widened significantly. We're talking about a 19-point margin. What is that? That's more than quadrupling the margin, and, of course, keep in mind in Texas, 25 percent of voters are Latino, at least 25 percent are in fact Latino in the state of Texas. So we expect that trend to really be showing there."

Right-wing Attorney General Ken Paxton is favored to win the GOP primary against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), but the prediction markets show he's less likely to win a general election matchup than the incumbent senator.

"I think Democrats really, really, really want to play there, and I will note when we look towards the general election, look at the odds here," Enten said. "We see a month ago it was 80 percent that the GOP won the Texas Senate race. Now still favorites, but those odds are becoming lower, lower for the GOP. Democrats have a real shot in Texas at this point. Republicans favored, but Democrats may really have a real play."

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