Fed’s September Rate Cut Next? FOMC Minutes and Powell Speech This Week to Decide

The crypto market is taking a toll today ahead of the FOMC Minutes and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Following the July Fed meeting, investors globally have been eyeing this week’s events, influencing significant volatility, especially as the September rate cuts are in the picture. Here’s what to expect.

July FOMC Meeting Minutes to be Released Tomorrow

The third week of August began with a slightly bearish tone for the digital assets, as the crypto market tumbled, ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes. As the July FOMC meeting kept the interest rates unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to hint at the upcoming interest rate decisions, all eyes are now on this event.

The Fed’s minutes will be released tomorrow, Wednesday, August 20, and a Powell Speech at Jackson Hole will take place on Friday, August 22, per the Fed Calendar. Experts note high volatility ahead as the highlight of these events could make or break the crypto market.

The huge focus is on the minutes, since Jackson Hole’s theme is jobs. The officials will likely focus on the employment data and how it could affect their decision on the interest rate.

What to Expect With  FOMC Minutes and Powell Speech; September Rate Cuts?

Aside from the Fed keeping the interest rate steady in the previous month, a unique split among the members was noticed this time. Notably, for the first time since 1993 (beginning of these meetings), there were dissenting votes, as Michelle Bowman & Christopher Waller voted for a 0.25% rate cut.

This aligns with Donald Trump’s views, as he has been continuously demanding that the Fed cut interest rates multiple times this year.

Which is why the hype around the September rate cuts is growing significantly. CME FedWatchTool and other platforms also indicate a high probability of rate cuts, with 100% at CME, and 73.6% on Polymarket. However, the July U.S. PPI data, which came hotter-than-expected at 3.3% YoY, is bringing uncertainty.

Although it is uncertain whether the minutes will include remarks on the upcoming Fed decision, their highlights of the July meeting and tone of Powell during his speech could hint at the potential take.

Notably, FOMC minutes and the Jerome Powell speech may also bring unexpected results, following the earnings reports, tariff-driven inflation, weekly jobless claims, and more. However, there can be far more clarity on the Fed’s decision on interest rates with the minutes and speech.

Moreover, it could add insights about the actions of these committee members who voted in favor of rate cuts.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Tumbles Ahead of Key Events

As there’s significant uncertainty on these minutes and the speech, Bitcoin has crashed to a one-week low, currently at $115.5k. The rest of the crypto market is crashing based on the same traders’ cautious sentiments, removing 0.75% of the total market cap today and even higher on the larger time scale.

Notably, along with these events, the US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks are also taking a toll on the financial market. Stocks, oil prices, Global bonds, and yields are also taking a toll. Now, the dovish or hawkish tone of Jerome Powell in the speech could further define the trajectory of the market.